Western Kentucky vs. Missouri State Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - March 5

In a contest featuring one of the sputtering teams in college basketball, the Missouri State Bears (13-16, 7-11 CUSA) face the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (18-11, 11-7 CUSA) at Great Southern Bank Arena on March 5, 2026. The Bears have lost seven in a row and are 2-8 in their past 10 games. They enter this matchup as underdogs by 1.5 points. The matchup has an over/under of 151.5 points.

In its last matchup on Saturday, Western Kentucky claimed a 97-65 win over UTEP. Grant Newell totaled 25 points, seven rebounds and one assist for Western Kentucky. Missouri State is coming off of an 86-81 loss to Sam Houston in its last outing on Saturday. Michael Osei-Bonsu's team-leading 24 points paced Missouri State in the loss.

Western Kentucky vs. Missouri State Odds and Game Time

• When: Thursday, March 5, 2026 at 8 p.m. ET
• Where: Great Southern Bank Arena in Springfield, Missouri
• Spread favorite: Western Kentucky -1.5
• Moneyline favorite: Western Kentucky -131
• Moneyline underdog: Missouri State +107
• Over/Under: 151.5 points

How to watch Western Kentucky vs. Missouri State

• TV Channel: ESPN+
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: Western Kentucky vs. Missouri State

• Western Kentucky and its opponents have hit the over on this game's total (151.5 points) 14 times this season.
• There have been 11 Missouri State games that ended with a combined score higher than 151.5 points this season.
• Together, the two teams combine for 154.9 points per game, 3.4 points more than the over/under of 151.5 for this contest.
• The 148.4 points per game these two teams surrender to opponents on average this season are 3.1 fewer than the 151.5 total in this contest.
• On average, Western Kentucky has had a 154.1-point over/under in its games this season, 2.6 more points than the over/under in this matchup.
• The over/under for this game is 2.3 points more than the average over/under in Missouri State's games this season (149.2 points).

Betting the Spread: Western Kentucky vs. Missouri State

• Western Kentucky is 15-12-0 against the spread this season.
• The Hilltoppers have been favored by 1.5 points or more 16 times this season and are 8-8 ATS in those contests.
• Missouri State has played 26 games, with 14 wins against the spread.
• The Bears have an ATS record of 7-5 in their 12 games when underdogs by 1.5 points or more this season.
• Missouri State is 7-6 overall, and 6-7 against the spread, at home.
• At home, Missouri State is 6-6 ATS as a 1.5-point underdog or more.
• Away from home, Western Kentucky is 5-5 against the spread, and 5-5 overall.
• Western Kentucky has two wins ATS (2-2) as 1.5-point favorites or more on the road.

Betting the Moneyline: Western Kentucky vs. Missouri State

• Western Kentucky has won 13, or 81.2%, of the 16 games it has played as the moneyline favorite this season.
• The Hilltoppers have entered 15 games this season favored by -131 or more and are 12-3 in those contests.
• Western Kentucky has a 56.7% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• Missouri State has come away with two wins in the 12 contests it has been listed as the moneyline underdog this season.
• This year, the Bears have won one of 11 games when listed as at least +107 or worse on the moneyline.
• Missouri State has an implied victory probability of 48.3% according to the moneyline set by sportsbooks for this matchup.