Valparaiso vs. Indiana State Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - MVC Tournament

The No. 7 seed Valparaiso Beacons (17-14, 11-9 MVC) are favored by 2.5 points in their MVC Tournament matchup against the No. 10 seed Indiana State Sycamores (11-20, 4-16 MVC) on Thursday at Enterprise Center, beginning at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+. The winner will move one step closer to earning an automatic spot in the NCAA Tournament bracket. The point total is 136.5 in the matchup.

In its last time out, Valparaiso lost 80-79 to Evansville on Saturday. In Valparaiso's loss, Owen Dease led the way with a team-high 17 points (adding zero rebounds and one assist). Indiana State heads into this matchup following a 79-63 win over UIC on Sunday. Camp Wagner scored a team-leading 25 points for Indiana State in the win.

Valparaiso vs. Indiana State Odds and Game Time

• When: Thursday, March 5, 2026 at 7 p.m. ET
• Where: Enterprise Center in St. Louis, Missouri
• Spread favorite: Valparaiso -2.5
• Moneyline favorite: Valparaiso -152
• Moneyline underdog: Indiana State +126
• Over/Under: 136.5 points

How to watch Valparaiso vs. Indiana State

• TV Channel: ESPN+
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: Valparaiso vs. Indiana State

• This season, 21 of Valparaiso's 30 games have gone over Thursday's total of 136.5 points.
• In Indiana State's 29 games this season, 24 finished with more combined points than Thursday's total of 136.5.
• The Beacons average 71.9 points per game against the Sycamores' 73.9, amounting to 9.3 points over the matchup's point total of 136.5.
• The 146 points per game these two teams allow to opponents on average this season are 9.5 more than the 136.5 over/under in this contest.
• Valparaiso has seen a 143.1 average over/under in its games this season, 6.6 points more than the over/under in this matchup.
• A difference of 12.3 points separates the average over/under in Indiana State's games (148.8 points) and this game's over/under (136.5).

Betting the Spread: Valparaiso vs. Indiana State

• Against the spread, Valparaiso is 21-9-0 this year.
• The Beacons have been favored by 2.5 points or more 11 times this season and are 6-5 ATS in those matchups.
• Indiana State is 18-11-0 against the spread this year.
• The Sycamores have been underdogs by 2.5 points or more 20 times this season and are 14-6 ATS in those contests.
• Valparaiso is 12-4 overall, and 11-5 against the spread, at home.
• At home, Valparaiso is 6-4 ATS as a 2.5-point favorite or greater.
• Away from home, Indiana State is 3-12 overall and 11-4 against the spread.

Betting the Moneyline: Valparaiso vs. Indiana State

• Valparaiso has entered the game as moneyline favorites 11 times this season and won nine, or 81.8%, of those games.
• The Beacons have a record of 7-2, a 77.8% win rate, when favored by -152 or more by sportsbooks this season.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 60.3% chance of a victory for Valparaiso.
• Indiana State has been a moneyline underdog in 21 games this season and has come away with the win five times (23.8%) in those contests.
• This season, the Sycamores have been victorious four times in 18 chances when named as an underdog of at least +126 or longer on the moneyline.
• Indiana State has an implied victory probability of 44.2% according to the moneyline set by sportsbooks for this matchup.