Toledo vs. Buffalo Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - March 6

The Toledo Rockets (16-14, 10-7 MAC) host the Buffalo Bulls (17-13, 7-10 MAC) at Savage Arena, starting at 7 p.m. ET on Friday, March 6, 2026. The Rockets are 7.5-point favorites in the game. The matchup has an over/under of 154.5.

Toledo is coming off of a 74-72 loss to Miami (OH) in its last outing on Tuesday. In the loss, Leroy Blyden Jr. led Toledo with 21 points. In its last game on Tuesday, Buffalo earned a 72-67 win over Eastern Michigan. Ryan Sabol's team-leading 27 points paced Buffalo in the win.

Toledo vs. Buffalo Odds and Game Time

• When: Friday, March 6, 2026 at 7 p.m. ET
• Where: Savage Arena in Toledo, Ohio
• Spread favorite: Toledo -7.5
• Moneyline favorite: Toledo -325
• Moneyline underdog: Buffalo +260
• Over/Under: 154.5 points

How to watch Toledo vs. Buffalo

• TV Channel: ESPN+
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: Toledo vs. Buffalo

• This season, 14 of Toledo's 28 games have gone over Friday's total of 154.5 points.
• There have been 13 Buffalo games that finished with a combined score higher than 154.5 points this season.
• The total for the game of 154.5 is 4.7 points fewer than the combined points per game averages for the Rockets (80.9 points per game) and the Bulls (78.3 points per game).
• These two teams surrender a combined 152.3 points per game, 2.2 points less than this contest's over/under.
• This season, the average over/under for Toledo's games is 157.6 points, 3.1 more than the total of 154.5 points set for this contest.
• The over/under for this game is 0.7 points more than the average over/under in Buffalo's games this season (153.8 points).

Betting the Spread: Toledo vs. Buffalo

• Against the spread, Toledo is 15-13-0 this season.
• The Rockets have an against the spread record of 3-4 in their seven games when favored by 7.5 points or more so far this season.
• Buffalo has 17 wins against the spread in 28 games this year.
• The Bulls have been underdogs by 7.5 points or more six times this season and are 5-1 ATS in those matchups.
• Toledo is 8-4 overall, and 5-7 against the spread, at home.
• Toledo has two wins ATS (2-3) as a 7.5-point favorite or more at home.
• Away from home, Buffalo is 10-3 against the spread, and 8-5 overall.
• Buffalo is unbeaten ATS (1-0) as 7.5-point underdogs or more on the road.

Betting the Moneyline: Toledo vs. Buffalo

• This season, Toledo has won 10 out of the 15 games, or 66.7%, in which it has been the moneyline favorite.
• The Rockets are undefeated in seven games this season when favored by -325 or more on the moneyline.
• Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that Toledo has a 76.5% chance to win.
• Buffalo has been a moneyline underdog in 13 games this season and has come away with the win four times (30.8%) in those contests.
• The Bulls have a mark of 2-2 in contests where oddsmakers give them odds of +260 or worse on the moneyline.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies Buffalo has a 27.8% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.