Texas State vs. Southern Miss Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - Sun Belt Tournament

The No. 5 seed Texas State Bobcats (19-12, 11-7 Sun Belt) are favored by 2.5 points in the Sun Belt Tournament against the No. 8 seed Southern Miss Golden Eagles (17-15, 9-9 Sun Belt) on Friday at Pensacola Bay Center, tipping off at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+. The matchup's point total is set at 140.5.

In its last time out, Texas State won on Friday 60-57 over Appalachian State. In Texas State's win, Mark Drone led the way with a team-high 23 points (adding three rebounds and four assists). Southern Miss' most recent game on Thursday ended in an 86-80 win against James Madison. In Southern Miss' win, Tylik Weeks led the team with 31 points (adding five rebounds and three assists).

Texas State vs. Southern Miss Odds and Game Time

• When: Friday, March 6, 2026 at 6 p.m. ET
• Where: Pensacola Bay Center in Pensacola, Florida
• Spread favorite: Texas State -2.5
• Moneyline favorite: Texas State -118
• Moneyline underdog: Southern Miss -102
• Over/Under: 140.5 points

How to watch Texas State vs. Southern Miss

• TV Channel: ESPN+
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: Texas State vs. Southern Miss

• This season, 17 of Texas State's 29 games have gone over Friday's over/under of 140.5 points.
• This season, 19 games Southern Miss has played finished with a combined score higher than 140.5 points.
• The total for the matchup of 140.5 is 7.6 points fewer than the combined points per game averages for the Bobcats (73.8 points per game) and the Golden Eagles (74.3 points per game).
• The 144.3 points per game these two teams allow their opponents to score combined this season are 3.8 more than the 140.5-point total in this contest.
• Texas State has seen a 144.5 average over/under in its games this season, 4.0 points more than the over/under in this contest.
• Southern Miss' games have an average over/under of 148.0 points this season, 7.5 more points than the over/under for this contest.

Betting the Spread: Texas State vs. Southern Miss

• Texas State has 16 wins against the spread in 29 games this season.
• The Bobcats are 4-6 ATS when favored by 2.5 points or more this season.
• Southern Miss is 15-15-0 against the spread this season.
• So far this season, the Golden Eagles have been installed as underdogs by a 2.5-point margin or more 14 times and are 8-6 ATS in those matchups.
• At home this season, Texas State is 11-4 against the spread and 14-1 overall.
• At home, as a 2.5-point favorite or more, Texas State is 4-3 ATS.
• This year in away games, Southern Miss is 7-8 against the spread and 4-11 overall.
• Southern Miss is unbeaten ATS (2-0) as 2.5-point underdogs or more away from home.

Betting the Moneyline: Texas State vs. Southern Miss

• Texas State has been the moneyline favorite in 14 games this season and won 12 (85.7%) of those contests.
• This season, the Bobcats have won 11 of their 13 games, or 84.6%, when favored by at least -118 on the moneyline.
• The bookmakers' moneyline implies a 54.1% chance of a victory for Texas State.
• Southern Miss has won in seven, or 33.3%, of the 21 contests it has been named as the moneyline underdog this year.
• This year, the Golden Eagles have won five of 19 games when listed as at least -102 or worse on the moneyline.
• Southern Miss has an implied victory probability of 50.5% according to the moneyline set by oddsmakers for this matchup.