SFA vs. Incarnate Word Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - March 2

The Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (26-4, 19-2 Southland) are favored by 7.5 points over the Incarnate Word Cardinals (12-18, 7-14 Southland) on March 2, 2026 at Alice P. McDermott Convocation Center. The Lumberjacks are red-hot, going 9-1 in their past 10 games. The matchup has a point total of 145.5.

SFA won its last outing 77-56 against Houston Christian on Saturday. Keon Thompson's team-leading 17 points paced SFA in the win. Incarnate Word enters this contest after a 72-60 victory over Lamar on Saturday. Davion Bailey scored a team-best 26 points for Incarnate Word in the win.

SFA vs. Incarnate Word Odds and Game Time

• When: Monday, March 2, 2026 at 7:30 p.m. ET
• Where: Alice P. McDermott Convocation Center in San Antonio, Texas
• Spread favorite: SFA -7.5
• Moneyline favorite: SFA -395
• Moneyline underdog: Incarnate Word +295
• Over/Under: 145.5 points

How to watch SFA vs. Incarnate Word

• TV Channel: ESPN+
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: SFA vs. Incarnate Word

• SFA and its opponents have hit the over on this game's total (145.5 points) 11 times this season.
• This season, 13 games Incarnate Word has played finished with a combined score over 145.5 points.
• The over/under for the game of 145.5 is 6.5 points fewer than the combined points per game averages for the Lumberjacks (77.5 points per game) and the Cardinals (74.5 points per game).
• These two teams surrender a combined 139.4 points per game, 6.1 points less than this contest's over/under.
• SFA has seen a 143.3 average over/under in its games this season, 2.2 less than the over/under in this contest.
• The over/under for this game is 2.6 points lower than the average over/under in Incarnate Word's games this season (148.1 points).

Betting the Spread: SFA vs. Incarnate Word

• In SFA's 28 games this season, it has 21 wins against the spread.
• This season, the Lumberjacks have an ATS record of 7-4 in their 11 games as a favorite of 7.5 points or more.
• Incarnate Word is 10-17-0 against the spread this year.
• So far this season, the Cardinals have been installed as underdogs by a 7.5-point margin or more seven times and are 4-3 ATS in those matchups.
• Incarnate Word is 5-6 against the spread, and 6-5 overall, at home this season.
• Incarnate Word is winless ATS (0-1) as a 7.5-point underdog or more at home.
• SFA is 11-3 against the spread, and 11-3 overall, on the road.
• SFA is unbeaten ATS (2-0) as 7.5-point favorites or more on the road.

Betting the Moneyline: SFA vs. Incarnate Word

• This season, SFA has won 20 out of the 22 games, or 90.9%, in which it has been the moneyline favorite.
• The Lumberjacks are 10-1 this season when entering a game favored by -395 or more on the moneyline.
• The implied probability of a win from SFA, based on the moneyline, is 79.8%.
• Incarnate Word has been victorious in three, or 23.1%, of the 13 contests it has been chosen as a moneyline underdog in this season.
• This year, the Cardinals have won one of seven games when listed as at least +295 or worse on the moneyline.
• Incarnate Word has an implied victory probability of 25.3% according to the moneyline set by oddsmakers for this matchup.