Northern Iowa vs. Evansville Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - MVC Tournament

The No. 6 seed Northern Iowa Panthers (19-12, 11-9 MVC) are 14.5-point favorites in the MVC Tournament against the No. 11 seed Evansville Purple Aces (7-24, 3-17 MVC) on Thursday at Enterprise Center. The matchup starts at 9:30 p.m. ET and airs on ESPN+, with the winner moving one step closer to securing a guaranteed spot in the NCAA Tournament bracket. The matchup has an over/under set at 125.5 points.

Northern Iowa is coming off of a 75-53 win against Drake in its last game on Sunday. In Northern Iowa's win, Will Hornseth led the way with a team-high 16 points (adding three rebounds and four assists). Evansville's most recent contest was an 81-67 loss to Southern Illinois on Sunday. Trent Hundley scored 16 points in Evansville's loss, leading the team.

Northern Iowa vs. Evansville Odds and Game Time

• When: Thursday, March 5, 2026 at 9:30 p.m. ET
• Where: Enterprise Center in St. Louis, Missouri
• Spread favorite: Northern Iowa -14.5
• Moneyline favorite: Northern Iowa -1429
• Moneyline underdog: Evansville +830
• Over/Under: 125.5 points

How to watch Northern Iowa vs. Evansville

• TV Channel: ESPN+
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: Northern Iowa vs. Evansville

• This season, Northern Iowa's games have hit the over on this matchup's 125.5-point over/under 17 times.
• In Evansville's 29 games this season, 25 finished with more combined points than Thursday's point total of 125.5.
• The Panthers average 69.3 points per game against the Purple Aces' 67.2, totaling 11.0 points over the contest's point total of 125.5.
• This matchup's over/under is 12.3 fewer points than the 137.8 these two teams combine to allow per game in 2024.
• Northern Iowa has seen a 130.4 average over/under in its games this season, 4.9 points more than the over/under in this matchup.
• Evansville's games have an average over/under of 144.0 points this season, 18.5 more points than the over/under for this game.

Betting the Spread: Northern Iowa vs. Evansville

• In Northern Iowa's 29 games this season, it has 15 wins against the spread.
• The Panthers have been favored by 14.5 points or more one time this season and have not covered the spread in any of them.
• Evansville is 14-15-0 against the spread this year.
• This year, the Purple Aces have two against the spread wins in four games as an underdog of 14.5 points or more.
• At home this season, Northern Iowa is 11-5 overall and 7-9 against the spread.
• At home, Northern Iowa is winless ATS (0-1) as a 14.5-point favorite or greater.
• Evansville is 1-12 overall, and 7-6 against the spread, on the road.

Betting the Moneyline: Northern Iowa vs. Evansville

• Northern Iowa has been the moneyline favorite in 23 games this season and won 15 (65.2%) of those contests.
• The Panthers have played as a favorite of -1429 or more once this season and won that game.
• Northern Iowa has a 93.5% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• Evansville has won in four, or 15.4%, of the 26 contests it has been named as the moneyline underdog this year.
• This season, the Purple Aces have been a moneyline underdog of -1429 or more four times, losing every contest.
• Evansville has an implied victory probability of 10.8% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.