New Mexico vs. Fresno State Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - Feb. 21

The New Mexico Lobos (20-6, 11-4 MWC) visit the Fresno State Bulldogs (12-14, 6-9 MWC) at Save Mart Center, starting at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday, February 21, 2026. The Lobos are 8.5-point favorites in the game. The over/under for the matchup is 157.5.

In its last time out, New Mexico won on Tuesday 98-61 against Air Force. Antonio Chol's team-leading 20 points paced New Mexico in the win. Fresno State is coming off of a 92-82 loss to Wyoming in its last outing on Tuesday. Fresno State got a team-high 19 points from Wilson Jacques in the loss.

New Mexico vs. Fresno State Odds and Game Time

• When: Saturday, February 21, 2026 at 8 p.m. ET
• Where: Save Mart Center in Fresno, California
• Spread favorite: New Mexico -8.5
• Moneyline favorite: New Mexico -465
• Moneyline underdog: Fresno State +346
• Over/Under: 157.5 points

How to watch New Mexico vs. Fresno State

• TV Channel: CBS Sports Network
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: New Mexico vs. Fresno State

• New Mexico and its opponents have combined to go over Saturday's total of 157.5 points eight times this season.
• This season, six games Fresno State has played finished with a combined score over 157.5 points.
• The point total for the matchup of 157.5 is 2.0 points more than the combined points per game averages for the Lobos (81.5 points per game) and the Bulldogs (74.0 points per game).
• These two teams give up a combined 141.8 points per game, 15.7 less than this contest's over/under.
• On average, the over/under in New Mexico's games is 6.8 fewer points than the over/under of 157.5 in this matchup.
• Fresno State's games have an average over/under of 146.6 points this season, 10.9 fewer points than the over/under for this game.

Betting the Spread: New Mexico vs. Fresno State

• New Mexico has played 25 games, with 14 wins against the spread.
• The Lobos have been favored by 8.5 points or more 11 times this season and are 5-6 ATS in those contests.
• Fresno State is 17-8-0 against the spread this year.
• The Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS when underdogs by 8.5 points or more this year.
• Fresno State is 8-6 overall, and 10-4 against the spread, at home.
• At home, Fresno State has one win ATS (1-2) as a 8.5-point underdog or more.
• In away games, New Mexico is 6-3 against the spread, and 6-3 overall.
• New Mexico has one win ATS (1-1) on the road as 8.5-point favorites or more.

Betting the Moneyline: New Mexico vs. Fresno State

• New Mexico has been the moneyline favorite in 18 games this season and won 15 (83.3%) of those contests.
• The Lobos have entered 10 games this season favored by -465 or more, and won each of those games.
• The implied probability of a win from New Mexico, based on the moneyline, is 82.3%.
• Fresno State has come away with five wins in the 15 contests it has been listed as the moneyline underdog this season.
• The Bulldogs have won all of their seven games in which they were named as at least a +346 moneyline underdog.
• Fresno State has an implied victory probability of 22.4% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.

Dunkel Index Prediction for New Mexico vs. Fresno State

• Pick ATS: Fresno State (+ 8.5)
• Pick OU: Under (157.5)
  
• Prediction: Fresno State 77 - New Mexico 76