Heat vs. Grizzlies Dunkel NBA Picks, Predictions and Odds - Feb. 21

The Memphis Grizzlies (21-33) will try to stop a four-game road skid when visiting the Miami Heat (30-27) on February 21, 2026 at Kaseya Center.

Miami is a sizable 11.5-point favorite against Memphis when the Heat hit the court against the Grizzlies on Saturday. The over/under is 236.5 points for the game.

Heat vs. Grizzlies Odds and Game Time

• Game day: Saturday, February 21, 2026
• Game time: 8 p.m. ET
• Location: Miami, Florida
• Arena: Kaseya Center
• Total: 236.5 points
• Spread: Heat -11.5
• Moneyline: Heat (-599), Grizzlies (+450)

How to watch Heat vs. Grizzlies

• TV Channel: FDSSUN, FDSSE, WPLG

Betting the Over/Under: Heat vs. Grizzlies

• In 29 of 57 games this season, the Heat and their opponents have gone over 236.5 points.
• The Grizzlies have played 21 games this season that ended with a combined score higher than 236.5 points.
• These two teams average a combined 235.1 points per game, 1.4 fewer points than this matchup's point total.
• These teams give up a combined 234.2 points per game, 2.3 fewer points than this contest's over/under.

Betting the Spread: Heat vs. Grizzlies

• Miami has put together a 33-23-1 ATS record so far this year.
• The Heat have won their only game this season when playing as at least 11.5-point favorites.
• The Grizzlies are 25-28-1 ATS this year.
• Memphis has been an underdog by 11.5 points or more two times this season, and covered the spread in one of those contests.
• The Heat are 16-11 overall, and 14-13 against the spread, at home.
• The Grizzlies are 13-13-1 against the spread, and 9-18 overall, in away games.

Betting the Moneyline: Heat vs. Grizzlies

• The Heat have been the moneyline favorite 28 total times this season. They've gone 17-11 in those games.
• The Grizzlies have won nine, or 25%, of the 36 games they've played as underdogs this season.
• Miami has played as a moneyline favorite of -599 or shorter in just one game this season, and won.
• Memphis has not won as an underdog of +450 or more on the moneyline this season in two games with those odds or longer.
• The Heat have an 85.7% chance to win this contest based on the moneyline's implied probability.

Dunkel Index Prediction for Heat vs. Grizzlies

• Pick ATS: Heat (- 11.5)
• Pick OU: Over (236.5)
  
• Prediction: Heat 131 - Grizzlies 112
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NBA Picks!