Louisville vs. North Carolina Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - Feb. 23

In a contest featuring one of the hottest teams in college basketball, the No. 21 Louisville Cardinals (20-7, 9-5 ACC, 8-2 in their last 10) battle the No. 16 North Carolina Tar Heels (21-6, 9-5 ACC) at Dean E. Smith Center on February 23, 2026. The Cardinals are favorites by 2.5 points. The over/under is set at 162.5 for the matchup.

Last time out, Louisville won on Saturday 87-70 over Georgia Tech. In the win, Mikel Brown Jr. paced Louisville with 19 points. North Carolina enters this contest after a 77-64 victory over Syracuse on Saturday. Henri Veesaar put up 19 points, three rebounds and one assist for North Carolina.

Louisville vs. North Carolina Odds and Game Time

• When: Monday, February 23, 2026 at 7 p.m. ET
• Where: Dean E. Smith Center in Chapel Hill, North Carolina
• Spread favorite: Louisville -2.5
• Moneyline favorite: Louisville -160
• Moneyline underdog: North Carolina +131
• Over/Under: 162.5 points

How to watch Louisville vs. North Carolina

• TV Channel: ESPN
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: Louisville vs. North Carolina

• Louisville and its opponents have combined to hit the over on Monday's total of 162.5 points nine times this season.
• This season, seven games North Carolina has played finished with a combined score over 162.5 points.
• The Cardinals average 86.8 points per game against the Tar Heels' 80.7, totaling 5.0 points over the game's over/under of 162.5.
• This game's over/under is 20.1 fewer points than the 142.4 these two teams combine to allow per game in 2024.
• Louisville has seen a 158.6 average over/under in its games this season, 3.9 less than the over/under in this contest.
• The over/under for this matchup is 11.1 points higher than the average over/under in North Carolina's games this season of 151.4.

Betting the Spread: Louisville vs. North Carolina

• Louisville is 14-13-0 against the spread this season.
• The Cardinals are 14-10 ATS when favored by 2.5 points or more this season.
• North Carolina is 14-13-0 against the spread this season.
• The Tar Heels have been underdogs by 2.5 points or more four times this season and are 3-1 ATS in those games.
• At home this year, North Carolina is 15-0 overall and 9-6 against the spread.
• This year, as a 2.5-point underdog or more at home, North Carolina is 8-6 ATS.
• Louisville is 3-5 overall, with two wins against the spread, on the road.
• Louisville has two wins ATS (2-4) away from home as 2.5-point favorites or more.

Betting the Moneyline: Louisville vs. North Carolina

• Louisville has been the moneyline favorite in 23 games this season and won 19 (82.6%) of those contests.
• The Cardinals have entered 22 games this season favored by -160 or more and are 19-3 in those contests.
• Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that Louisville has a 61.5% chance to win.
• North Carolina has won in four of the seven contests it has been named as the moneyline underdog this year.
• This year, the Tar Heels have won three of four games when listed as at least +131 or worse on the moneyline.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies North Carolina has a 43.3% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.

Dunkel Index Prediction for Louisville vs. North Carolina

• Pick ATS: North Carolina (+ 2.5)
• Pick OU: Over (162.5)
  
• Prediction: North Carolina 83 - Louisville 82