Lightning vs. Sabres NHL Predictions, Picks and Odds - Feb. 28

A pair of the Eastern Conference's best squads face one another on Saturday, Feb. 28 when the first-place Tampa Bay Lightning (38-15-4) host the third-place Buffalo Sabres (34-19-6). The Sabres are big underdogs away from home, at +200, and the Lightning are -245.

Tampa Bay lost 5-4 on the road in its last game on Feb. 26 against the Carolina Hurricanes. Jake Guentzel led the Lightning with three points (three assists).

Buffalo won its most recent game 3-2 on the road against the Florida Panthers on Feb. 27. Alex Tuch had two points (one goal and one assist) in that outing for the Sabres.

Ahead of watching this matchup, here is our pick for which team will secure the win in Saturday's hockey action.

Lightning vs. Sabres Predictions & Pick

Ahead of the upcoming contest between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Buffalo Sabres, computer-derived moneyline, over/under, and score predictions are below, based on data from Dunkel Index.

• Prediction: Lightning 3 - Sabres 1
• Pick OU: Under 6.5 (Dunkel projecting 4.07 goals)
  

Pick with the best in the business! Get free picks for every game, every week at the Dunkel Index.

Lightning vs. Sabres Moneylines

Take a peek below at the latest moneylines for the Lightning-Sabres matchup.

• Favorite: Lightning (-245)
• Underdog: Sabres (+200)

Lightning Betting Insights

• The Lightning have won 67.4% of their games when they've been a moneyline favorite this season (31-15).
• When playing with moneyline odds of -245 or shorter, Tampa Bay is 3-1 (winning 75.0% of the time).
• Based on the moneyline in this game, the Lightning's implied win probability is 71.0%.
• In 25 of 57 matches this season, Tampa Bay and its opponent have combined for more than 6.5 goals.

Sabres Betting Insights

• This season the Sabres have been an underdog 31 times, and won 18, or 58.1%, of those games.
• Buffalo has played as an underdog on the moneyline of +200 or longer twice this season, and lost both.
• The moneyline set in this outing implies a 33.3% chance of victory for the Sabres.
• Buffalo has combined with its opponent to score over 6.5 goals in 28 of 59 games this season.

Lightning Key Stats

• Tampa Bay's 203 total goals (3.6 per game) make it the third-highest scoring team in the NHL.
• The Lightning have conceded 145 total goals (2.5 per game), the second-fewest in league action.
• Its +58 goal differential is the second-best in the league.
• The 39 power-play goals the Lightning have recorded this season (to rank 11th in the NHL) have come on 180 power-play chances.
• Tampa Bay's 21.67% power-play conversion rate ranks 13th in the league.
• The Lightning have scored three shorthanded goals this season.
• Tampa Bay's 83.15% penalty-kill success rate is the fifth-best in the league.
• Tampa Bay wins 47.1% of its faceoffs to rank 29th in the NHL.
• The Lightning connect on 12.6% of their shots (third in the league).

Sabres Key Stats

• Buffalo is eighth in the league in scoring (197 goals, 3.3 per game).
• The Sabres' total of 179 goals given up (3.0 per game) is 14th in the league.
• It has the ninth-best goal differential in the league at +18.
• The Sabres have 35 power-play goals (16th in NHL) on 175 chances.
• Buffalo scores on 20% of its power plays, No. 15 in the NHL.
• The Sabres have seven shorthanded goals (second in league).
• Buffalo's has the seventh-best penalty-kill percentage (82.5%).
• Buffalo wins 44.5% of faceoffs, 32nd-ranked in the NHL.
• With a shooting percentage of 12%, the Sabres are fifth in the league.