Rockets vs. Heat Dunkel NBA Picks, Predictions and Odds - Feb. 28

The Houston Rockets (37-21) will try to extend a three-game winning run when they visit the Miami Heat (31-29) on February 28, 2026 at Kaseya Center.

Saturday's matchup between the Rockets and the Heat features the Rockets as slim 2-point favorites. The matchup's over/under is 226.5.

Rockets vs. Heat Odds and Game Time

• Game day: Saturday, February 28, 2026
• Game time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Miami, Florida
• Arena: Kaseya Center
• Total: 226.5 points
• Spread: Rockets -2
• Moneyline: Rockets (-134), Heat (+114)

How to watch Rockets vs. Heat

• TV Channel: Amazon Prime Video, SCHN

Betting the Over/Under: Rockets vs. Heat

• In 24 games this season, the Rockets and their opponents have scored more than 226.5 total points.
• The Heat have played 42 games this season that finished with a point total higher than 226.5 points.
• The teams average 234.6 points per game combined, 8.1 more points than this game's total.
• Opponents of these two teams score 226.3 points per game combined, 0.2 fewer than this matchup's over/under.

Betting the Spread: Rockets vs. Heat

• Houston has covered 27 times in 58 chances against the spread this season.
• The Rockets have been favored by 2 points or more 49 times this season, and covered the spread in 20 of those contests.
• The Heat have covered 34 times in 60 games with a spread this year.
• Miami has an ATS record of 16-10-1 when playing as at least 2-point underdogs this season.
• The Heat are 15-13 against the spread, and 17-11 overall, at home.
• At home, Miami is 8-10 ATS as a 2-point underdog or more.
• Away from home, the Rockets are 17-14 overall and 17-14 against the spread.
• This year Houston is 10-13 ATS as 2-point favorites or more on the road.

Betting the Moneyline: Rockets vs. Heat

• The Rockets have won 65.4% of the games this season when they were the moneyline favorite (34-18).
• This season, the Heat have won 13 out of the 30 games, or 43.3%, in which they've been the underdog.
• Houston has gone 31-16 when playing as a moneyline favorite with odds of -134 or shorter (winning 66%).
• This season, Miami has won nine of its 25 games, or 36%, when it is the underdog by at least +114 on the moneyline.
• The implied moneyline probability for this matchup gives the Rockets a 57.3% chance to win.

Dunkel Index Prediction for Rockets vs. Heat

• Pick ATS: Heat (+ 2)
• Pick OU: Over (226.5)
  
• Prediction: Heat 119 - Rockets 118
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NBA Picks!