Boise State vs. Fresno State Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - Feb. 28

The Boise State Broncos (17-11, 9-8 MWC) visit the Fresno State Bulldogs (12-16, 6-11 MWC) at Save Mart Center, beginning at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday, February 28, 2026. The Bulldogs are 7.5-point underdogs in the game. The matchup's over/under is 148.5.

Boise State took care of business in its most recent outing 72-62 against Wyoming on Tuesday. Dylan Andrews' team-leading 20 points led Boise State in the win. Fresno State is coming off of a 74-70 loss to Colorado State in its most recent game on Tuesday. Fresno State got a team-best 23 points from DeShawn Gory in the loss.

Boise State vs. Fresno State Odds and Game Time

• When: Saturday, February 28, 2026 at 8 p.m. ET
• Where: Save Mart Center in Fresno, California
• Spread favorite: Boise State -7.5
• Moneyline favorite: Boise State -338
• Moneyline underdog: Fresno State +263
• Over/Under: 148.5 points

How to watch Boise State vs. Fresno State

• TV Channel: MW Network
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: Boise State vs. Fresno State

• Boise State and its opponents have hit the over on this game's total (148.5 points) 15 times this season.
• A total of 12 of Fresno State's games have ended with a combined score higher than 148.5 points this season.
• The total for the contest of 148.5 is 3.9 points fewer than the combined points per game averages for the Broncos (78.4 points per game) and the Bulldogs (74.0 points per game).
• The 146.8 points per game these two teams allow their opponents to score on average this season are 1.7 fewer than the 148.5 over/under in this contest.
• Boise State has seen a 152.3 average over/under in its games this season, 3.8 points more than the over/under in this contest.
• Fresno State's games have an average over/under of 146.9 points this season, 1.6 fewer points than the over/under for this contest.

Betting the Spread: Boise State vs. Fresno State

• In Boise State's 27 games this year, it has 14 wins against the spread.
• The Broncos are 6-6 ATS when favored by 7.5 points or more this season.
• In Fresno State's 27 games this season, it has 19 wins against the spread.
• The Bulldogs are 7-3 ATS when underdogs by 7.5 points or more this year.
• At home this year, Fresno State is 11-4 against the spread and 8-7 overall.
• Fresno State has one win ATS (1-2) as a 7.5-point underdog or greater at home.
• This season away from home, Boise State is 5-4 against the spread and 4-5 overall.
• Boise State is unbeaten ATS (1-0) as 7.5-point favorites or more on the road.

Betting the Moneyline: Boise State vs. Fresno State

• Boise State has entered the game as moneyline favorites 16 times this season and won 12, or 75%, of those games.
• The Broncos are 9-2 this season when entering a game favored by -338 or more on the moneyline.
• The sportsbooks' moneyline implies a 77.2% chance of a victory for Boise State.
• Fresno State has been victorious in five, or 29.4%, of the 17 contests it has been chosen as a moneyline underdog in this season.
• The Bulldogs have yet to win this season when listed as an underdog of +263 or worse on the moneyline this season.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies Fresno State has a 27.5% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.

Dunkel Index Prediction for Boise State vs. Fresno State

• Pick ATS: Fresno State (+ 7.5)
• Pick OU: Over (148.5)
  
• Prediction: Fresno State 78 - Boise State 77