Virginia vs. Miami (FL) Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - Feb. 21

The No. 14 Virginia Cavaliers (23-3, 11-2 ACC) are favored by 7.5 points versus the Miami Hurricanes (21-5, 10-3 ACC) on February 21, 2026 at John Paul Jones Arena. The Cavaliers are on a roll, having won seven in a row and going 9-1 in their past 10 games. The matchup has an over/under set at 145.5 points.

In its last outing on Wednesday, Virginia secured a 94-68 win against Georgia Tech. Thijs De Ridder's team-leading 22 points led Virginia in the victory. Miami (FL) enters this contest following a 67-66 win against Virginia Tech on Tuesday. Tre Donaldson's team-leading 32 points paced Miami (FL) in the victory.

Virginia vs. Miami (FL) Odds and Game Time

• When: Saturday, February 21, 2026 at 2 p.m. ET
• Where: John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville, Virginia
• Spread favorite: Virginia -7.5
• Moneyline favorite: Virginia -376
• Moneyline underdog: Miami (FL) +288
• Over/Under: 145.5 points

How to watch Virginia vs. Miami (FL)

• TV Channel: ESPN2
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: Virginia vs. Miami (FL)

• Virginia and its opponents have hit the over on this game's total (145.5 points) 13 times this season.
• This season, 16 games Miami (FL) has played finished with a combined score higher than 145.5 points.
• The total for the contest of 145.5 is 19.3 points fewer than the combined points per game averages for the Cavaliers (81.9 points per game) and the Hurricanes (82.9 points per game).
• These two teams surrender a combined 137.3 points per game, 8.2 less than this contest's over/under.
• On average, Virginia has seen a 149.3-point over/under in its games this season, 3.8 more points than the over/under in this contest.
• The over/under for this contest is 7.3 points lower than the average over/under in Miami (FL)'s games this season (152.8 points).

Betting the Spread: Virginia vs. Miami (FL)

• In Virginia's 26 games this year, it has 14 wins against the spread.
• This season, the Cavaliers have an against-the-spread record of 8-8 in their 16 games as a favorite of 7.5 points or more.
• In Miami (FL)'s 26 games this year, it has 13 wins against the spread.
• The Hurricanes have yet to cover the spread this season when underdogs by 7.5 points or more.
• Virginia is 7-6 against the spread, and 12-1 overall, at home this year.
• This season, as a 7.5-point favorite or more at home, Virginia is 7-5 ATS.
• Miami (FL) is 6-1 overall, and 5-2 against the spread, away from home.
• Miami (FL) is winless ATS (0-1) away from home as 7.5-point underdogs or more.

Betting the Moneyline: Virginia vs. Miami (FL)

• Virginia has entered the game as moneyline favorites 21 times this season and won 18, or 85.7%, of those games.
• The Cavaliers have been at least a -376 moneyline favorite 14 times this season and won each of those games.
• The implied probability of a win from Virginia, based on the moneyline, is 79%.
• Miami (FL) has come away with four wins in the seven contests it has been listed as the moneyline underdog this season.
• The Hurricanes have played as an underdog of +288 or more just one time this year and came away with a loss in that game.
• Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that Miami (FL) has a 25.8% chance of pulling out a win.