Valparaiso vs. Evansville Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - Feb. 28

In a game featuring one of the sputtering teams in college basketball, the Evansville Purple Aces (6-23, 2-16 MVC) battle the Valparaiso Beacons (17-13, 11-8 MVC) at Ford Center on February 28, 2026. The Purple Aces have lost four in a row and are 1-9 in their past 10 games. They enter this matchup as underdogs by 4.5 points. The matchup's over/under is 138.5.

Valparaiso is coming off of a 74-71 victory against Drake in its last game on Wednesday. Brody Whitaker totaled 17 points, one rebound and three assists for Valparaiso. Evansville's last outing was a 98-64 loss to Belmont on Wednesday. Evansville got a team-best 21 points from AJ Casey in the loss.

Valparaiso vs. Evansville Odds and Game Time

• When: Saturday, February 28, 2026 at 4 p.m. ET
• Where: Ford Center in Evansville, Indiana
• Spread favorite: Valparaiso -4.5
• Moneyline favorite: Valparaiso -216
• Moneyline underdog: Evansville +170
• Over/Under: 138.5 points

How to watch Valparaiso vs. Evansville

• TV Channel: ESPN+
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: Valparaiso vs. Evansville

• Valparaiso and its opponents have combined to outscore Saturday's total of 138.5 points 18 times this season.
• A total of 17 of Evansville's games have finished with a combined score over 138.5 points this season.
• The point total for the matchup of 138.5 matches the combined points per game averages for the Beacons (71.7 points per game) and the Purple Aces (66.8 points per game).
• The 147.4 points per game these two teams allow their opponents to score combined this season are 8.9 more than the 138.5-point total in this contest.
• On average, Valparaiso has seen a 142.5-point over/under in its games this season, 4.0 more points than the over/under in this contest.
• Evansville's games have an average over/under of 143.3 points this season, 4.8 more points than the over/under for this contest.

Betting the Spread: Valparaiso vs. Evansville

• Valparaiso has 21 wins against the spread in 29 games this year.
• The Beacons have been favored by 4.5 points or more six times this season and have covered the spread in two of them.
• Evansville has 13 wins against the spread in 27 games this season.
• The Purple Aces have an ATS record of 11-11 in their 22 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or more this season.
• Evansville is 5-6 against the spread, and 2-9 overall, at home.
• Evansville is unbeaten ATS (1-0) as a 4.5-point underdog or greater at home.
• In away games, Valparaiso is 4-9 overall and 10-3 against the spread.

Betting the Moneyline: Valparaiso vs. Evansville

• This season, Valparaiso has been moneyline favorites 10 times and won nine of those games.
• The Beacons have a record of 4-1 when favored by -216 or more by sportsbooks this season.
• Valparaiso has a 68.4% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• Evansville has won in three, or 12.5%, of the 24 contests it has been named as the moneyline underdog this year.
• This season, the Purple Aces have been victorious three times in 22 chances when named as an underdog of at least +170 or worse on the moneyline.
• Evansville has an implied victory probability of 37% according to the moneyline set by sportsbooks for this matchup.