Valkyries vs. Mercury: Betting Trends, Odds, Records Against the Spread, Predictions - July 29

The Golden State Valkyries (19-8) will look to build on a five-game road winning run when squaring off against the Phoenix Mercury (10-18) on Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at Mortgage Matchup Center, airing at 10 p.m. ET on USA, AZFamily, KPIX+, KMAX 31, and CNBC.

Golden State, led by Kaitlyn Chen with 15 points, six assists and two steals, fell short in a 90-82 defeat to Washington in their most recent game. Kayla Thornton added 15 points and two steals.

In its previous game, Phoenix beat Los Angeles 86-82 on the road, with Kahleah Copper (21 PTS, 62.5 FG%) and Alyssa Thomas (19 PTS, 11 REB, 15 AST, 3 STL, 55.6 FG%) leading the way.

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Valkyries vs. Mercury Betting Lines

Snag a look below at the most up-to-date betting lines for the Valkyries-Mercury game.

• Favorite: Valkyries (-5.5)
• Total: 156.5
• Valkyries Moneyline: -215
• Mercury Moneyline: +172

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Valkyries Betting Insights

• Based on this game's moneyline, the Valkyries' implied win probability is 68.3%.
• Golden State has put together a 14-2 record in games when it was listed as a moneyline favorite (winning 87.5% of those games).
• The Valkyries have covered 17 times in 27 chances against the spread this season.
• In 17 games this season, Golden State and its opponents have scored more than 156.5 combined points.
• The average total in Valkyries matchups this year is 162.4, 5.9 more points than this game's over/under.

Mercury Betting Insights

• The sportsbooks' moneyline implies a 36.8% chance of a victory for the Mercury.
• Phoenix has been the underdog in 17 games this season and won five (29.4%) of those contests.
• The Mercury have covered 12 times in 28 games with a spread this year.
• Phoenix has combined with its opponents to score more than 156.5 points in 22 of 28 games this season.
• The Mercury's average game total this season has been 169.0, 12.5 more points than this matchup's over/under.

Key Stats for Valkyries vs. Mercury

• Golden State scores only 4.6 fewer points per game (81.9) than Phoenix allows (86.5).
• The Valkyries are 10-0 when scoring more than 86.5 points.
• Golden State has scored at a higher clip when playing at home than away from home in the 2026 season (82.6 at home versus 81.0 on the road), and it has surrendered fewer points at home than on the road (76.1 per home game versus 76.8 on the road).
• Phoenix scores 6.6 more points per game (83.0) than Golden State give up to opponents (76.4).
• The Mercury have put together an 8-12 record in games when they've scored more than 76.4 points.
• Phoenix scores more points per game at home (84.7) than away (81.5), but also give ups more at home (87.8) than on the road (85.4).

All Media on this page by Associated Press.