Lightning vs. Maple Leafs NHL Predictions, Picks and Odds - Feb. 25

The Tampa Bay Lightning (37-14-4) host the Toronto Maple Leafs (27-21-9) on Wednesday, Feb. 25, with both teams coming off a victory. Lightning (-225) versus Maple Leafs (+185) appears lopsided, according to the moneyline odds.

Tampa Bay grabbed a 6-1 victory at home its last time out on Feb. 5 against the Florida Panthers. The Lightning got two points each out of Pontus Holmberg (one goal and one assist) and Oliver Bjorkstrand (one goal and one assist).

Toronto won its last game 5-2 on the road against the Edmonton Oilers on Feb. 3. The Maple Leafs were led in that matchup by Matthew Knies (one goal and one assist) and Matias Maccelli (two goals).

Here's our prediction for who will secure the win in Wednesday's game.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Predictions & Pick

For the upcoming game between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs, computer-derived moneyline, over/under, and score predictions are below, sourced from Dunkel Index.

• Prediction: Lightning 5 - Maple Leafs 2
• Pick OU: Over 6.5 (Dunkel projecting 6.99 goals)
  

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Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Moneylines

Take a peek below at the most recent moneylines for the Lightning-Maple Leafs matchup.

• Favorite: Lightning (-225)
• Underdog: Maple Leafs (+185)

Lightning Betting Insights

• The Lightning are 30-15 when favored on the moneyline this season.
• When playing with moneyline odds of -225 or shorter, Tampa Bay has compiled a 3-1 record (winning 75.0% of its games).
• Based on this contest's moneyline, the Lightning have an implied probability of 69.2% to win.
• Tampa Bay and its opponent have combined to score more than 6.5 goals in 24 of 55 games this season.

Maple Leafs Betting Insights

• This season the Maple Leafs have won 11 of the 25 games, or 44.0%, in which they've been an underdog.
• Toronto has played as an underdog of +185 or more once this season and won.
• The moneyline set in this outing implies a 35.1% chance of victory for the Maple Leafs.
• Toronto has played 33 games this season that finished with more than 6.5 goals.

Lightning Key Stats

• Tampa Bay has scored the fourth-most goals in the league (195 total, 3.6 per game).
• The Lightning have conceded 138 total goals (2.5 per game), ranking second in league play for the fewest goals against.
• Its +57 goal differential is the second-best in the league.
• The 38 power-play goals the Lightning have scored this season are 10th-best in the NHL (on 174 power-play chances).
• Tampa Bay has the league's 12th-ranked power-play conversion rate (21.84%).
• The Lightning have scored three shorthanded goals this season.
• Tampa Bay's 83.91% penalty-kill success rate is the fourth-best in the league.
• Tampa Bay has the 30th-ranked faceoff win rate in the NHL, at 46.9%.
• The Lightning connect on 12.6% of their shots (third in the league).

Maple Leafs Key Stats

• With 187 goals (3.3 per game), Toronto has the NHL's 14th-ranked offense.
• The Maple Leafs have conceded 193 total goals this season (3.4 per game), 28th in the league.
• it has the 19th-ranked goal differential in the league at -6.
• The Maple Leafs have 25 power-play goals (31st in NHL) on 133 chances.
• Toronto scores on 18.8% of its power plays, No. 22 in the NHL.
• This season, the Maple Leafs have three shorthanded goals (20th in league).
• Toronto's has the fifth-best penalty-kill percentage (83.69%).
• Toronto is the league leader in faceoff win rate (56.2%).
• The Maple Leafs' 12% shooting percentage is seventh in the league.