Rays vs. Guardians Game 1 of the ALCS Dunkel MLB Picks, Predictions and Props - Oct. 12

The ALCS opens between the Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians at Tropicana Field, beginning at 8 p.m. ET on Monday. Drew Rasmussen (16-5, 2.67 ERA) will start for the Rays, and Foster Griffin (15-6, 3.60 ERA) is expected to start for the Guardians.

The Rays are moderate favorites on the moneyline (-170) at home over the Guardians (+139). The game has an over/under set at 6.5 runs.

Rays vs. Guardians Odds, Game Time

• Game day: Monday, October 12, 2026
• Game time: 8 p.m. ET
• Location: St. Petersburg, Florida
• Stadium: Tropicana Field
• Favorite: Rays (-170)
• Underdog: Guardians (+139)
• Over/under: 6.5

How to Watch Rays vs. Guardians

• TV Channel: TBS, truTV and HBO Max
• Live Stream: Fubo (Watch for free)

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Rays vs. Guardians: Betting the Moneyline

• The Rays have gone 68-37 in games they were listed as the moneyline favorite (winning 64.8% of those games).
• Cleveland has been underdogs in 63 games this season and has come away with the win 31 times (49.2%) in those contests.
• Tampa Bay has a record of 13-6, a 68.4% win rate, when favored by -170 or more by bookmakers this season.
• This season, the Guardians have come away with a win six times in 10 chances when named as an underdog of at least +139 or longer on the moneyline.
• Based on this game's moneyline, the Rays' implied win probability is 63%.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Guardians have a 41.8% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.

Rays vs. Guardians: Betting the Spread & Total

• The Rays have played in 165 games with a set over/under, and have combined with their opponents to go over the total 75 times (75-82-8).
• So far this season, Cleveland and its opponents have hit the over in 80 of its 167 games with a total.
• The Rays have an 87-78-0 record ATS this season.
• The Guardians are 82-85-0 against the spread in their 167 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.

Dunkel Index Prediction for Rays vs. Guardians

• Pick OU: Under (6.5)
  
• Prediction: Rays 3 - Guardians 2
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