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Lightning vs. Jets NHL Predictions, Picks and Odds - March 5

05 March 2026 By Data Skrive

The Tampa Bay Lightning and Winnipeg Jets -- the former coming off a loss, the latter a victory -- will face each other on Thursday at 8 p.m. ET, at Canada Life Centre in Winnipeg. The Jets are big underdogs despite being at home, at +160, and the Lightning are -192.

Tampa Bay's most recent game was a 5-1 road loss to the Minnesota Wild on March 3. The Lightning got one point apiece out of three players, including Brayden Point (one assist) and Nikita Kucherov (one goal).

In its most recent game on March 3, Winnipeg claimed a 3-2 home victory over the Chicago Blackhawks. Mark Scheifele led the Jets with three points (one goal and two assists) in that outing.

Before watching this matchup, here's a glimpse at which team we think will come out on top in Thursday's action on the ice.

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Lightning vs. Jets Predictions & Pick

For predictions on the upcoming contest between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Winnipeg Jets, computer-derived moneyline, over/under, and score predictions are below, per Dunkel Index.

  • Prediction: Jets 3 - Lightning 2
  • Pick OU: Under 5.5 (Dunkel projecting 5.09 goals)

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Lightning vs. Jets Moneylines

Snag a look below at the most up-to-date moneylines for the Lightning-Jets game.

  • Favorite: Lightning (-192)
  • Underdog: Jets (+160)

Lightning Betting Insights

  • In the 48 times this season the Lightning have been favored on the moneyline, they have finished 31-17 in those games.
  • In games it has played with moneyline odds of -192 or shorter, Tampa Bay has put together a 9-4 record (winning 69.2% of its games).
  • The Lightning have a 65.8% chance (based on the moneyline's implied probability) to win this game.
  • In 34 of 59 matches this season, Tampa Bay and its opponent have combined for more than 5.5 goals.

Jets Betting Insights

  • This season the Jets have been an underdog 23 times, and won five, or 21.7%, of those games.
  • This season Winnipeg has been at least a +160 underdog on the moneyline three times, losing each of those contests.
  • The bookmakers' moneyline implies a 38.5% chance of victory for the Jets.
  • Winnipeg has played 36 games this season that ended with over 5.5 goals.

Lightning Key Stats

  • Tampa Bay's 206 total goals (3.5 per game) make it the sixth-highest scoring team in the league.
  • The Lightning have allowed 156 total goals (2.6 per game), the second-fewest in NHL action.
  • It has the league's second-best goal differential at +50.
  • The 39 power-play goals the Lightning have put up this season rank 14th in the NHL (on 186 power-play chances).
  • Tampa Bay is 13th in the league with a 20.97% power-play conversion rate.
  • The Lightning have scored three shorthanded goals this season.
  • Tampa Bay's 82.98% penalty-kill success rate is the fifth-best in the league.
  • Tampa Bay wins 47.2% of its faceoffs to rank 28th in the NHL.
  • The Lightning have a 12.3% shooting percentage as a team, which ranks fourth in the league.

Jets Key Stats

  • Winnipeg's 170 goals on the season (2.8 per game) rank 25th in the league.
  • The Jets' total of 184 goals allowed (3.1 per game) is 13th in the league.
  • With a goal differential of -14, the team is 19th in the league.
  • With 31 power-play goals (on 169 chances), the Jets are 21st in the NHL.
  • Winnipeg has the league's 23rd-ranked power-play percentage (18.34%).
  • The Jets have five shorthanded goals (11th in league).
  • At 79.1%, Winnipeg has the 17th-ranked penalty-kill percentage in the league.
  • At 50.4%, Winnipeg has the NHL's 16th-ranked faceoff win percentage.
  • With a shooting percentage of 10.7%, the Jets are 19th in the league.

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