Florida vs. Mississippi State Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - March 3
03 March 2026

In a game featuring one of the hottest squads in college basketball, the No. 5 Florida Gators (23-6, 14-2 SEC, 9-1 in their last 10) play the Mississippi State Bulldogs (13-16, 5-11 SEC) at Exactech Arena at the Stephen C. O'Connell Center on March 3, 2026. The Gators are favorites by 23.5 points. The over/under in the matchup is 160.5.
Florida won its most recent matchup 111-77 against Arkansas on Saturday. Thomas Haugh's team-leading 22 points led Florida in the victory. Mississippi State's most recent game was an 88-64 loss to Missouri on Saturday. Josh Hubbard scored a team-best 16 points for Mississippi State in the loss.
Florida vs. Mississippi State Odds and Game Time
- When: Tuesday, March 3, 2026 at 8 p.m. ET
- Where: Exactech Arena at the Stephen C. O'Connell Center in Gainesville, Florida
- Spread favorite: Florida -23.5
- Moneyline favorite: Florida -7692
- Moneyline underdog: Mississippi State +2200
- Over/Under: 160.5 points
How to watch Florida vs. Mississippi State
- TV Channel: SEC Network
- Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!
Betting the Over/Under: Florida vs. Mississippi State
- Florida and its opponents have combined to outscore Tuesday's total (160.5 points) 13 times this season.
- There have been 11 Mississippi State games that ended with a combined score higher than 160.5 points this season.
- The point total for the game of 160.5 is 4.3 points fewer than the combined points per game averages for the Gators (87.1) and Bulldogs (77.7).
- The 151.7 points per game these two teams allow their opponents to score combined this season are 8.8 less than the 160.5-point total in this contest.
- This season the average over/under for Florida's games is 158.6 points, 1.9 fewer than the over/under of 160.5 set for this contest.
- Mississippi State's games have an average over/under of 158.0 points this season, 2.5 points lower than the over/under for this game.
Betting the Spread: Florida vs. Mississippi State
- In Florida's 29 games this season, it has 17 wins against the spread.
- This season, the Gators have just one against the spread win in five games as a favorite of 23.5 points or more.
- Mississippi State has played 29 games, with 10 wins against the spread.
- At home this year, Florida is 13-1 overall and 6-8 against the spread.
- Florida has one win ATS (1-4) as a 23.5-point favorite or more at home.
- Mississippi State is 5-4 against the spread, and 4-5 overall, in away games.
Betting the Moneyline: Florida vs. Mississippi State
- This season, Florida has been moneyline favorites 25 times and won 21, or 84%, of those games.
- The Gators have been at least a -7692 moneyline favorite four times this season and won each of those games.
- The implied probability of a win from Florida, based on the moneyline, is 98.7%.
- Mississippi State has been victorious in four, or 26.7%, of the 15 contests it has been chosen as a moneyline underdog in this season.
- This is the worst odds of a win that sportsbooks have given the Bulldogs this season with a +2200 moneyline set for this game.
- The moneyline set for this matchup implies Mississippi State has a 4.3% chance of walking away with the win.
