North Carolina vs. VCU Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - First Round

The No. 6 North Carolina Tar Heels (24-8) and the No. 11 VCU Rams (27-7) are set to meet in their first-round matchup in the NCAA Tournament on Thursday, starting at 6:50 p.m. ET on TNT. North Carolina is a 2.5-point favorite in this game. Here's everything you need to know about this South Region matchup as you fill out your brackets. The matchup has an over/under of 153.5 points.

North Carolina dropped its last matchup 80-79 against Clemson on Thursday. In the loss, Henri Veesaar led North Carolina with 28 points. VCU enters this game following a 70-62 win over Dayton on Sunday. Nyk Lewis scored a team-best 17 points for VCU in the win.

North Carolina vs. VCU Odds and Game Time

• When: Thursday, March 19, 2026 at 6:50 p.m. ET
• Where: Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina
• Spread favorite: North Carolina -2.5
• Moneyline favorite: North Carolina -149
• Moneyline underdog: VCU +121
• Over/Under: 153.5 points

How to watch North Carolina vs. VCU

• TV Channel: TNT
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: North Carolina vs. VCU

• This season, North Carolina and its opponents have combined to outscore Thursday's total of 153.5 points 13 times.
• This season, 17 games VCU has played finished with a combined score over 153.5 points.
• The total for the contest of 153.5 is 7.9 points fewer than the combined points per game averages for the Tar Heels (79.8) and Rams (81.6).
• The 142.8 points per game these two teams surrender to opponents on average this season are 10.7 fewer than the 153.5 total in this contest.
• On average, the over/under in North Carolina's games is 2.4 fewer points than the over/under of 153.5 in this matchup.
• The over/under for this matchup is 0.5 points higher than the average over/under in VCU's games this season of 153.0.

Betting the Spread: North Carolina vs. VCU

• North Carolina has played 32 games, with 18 wins against the spread.
• This season, the Tar Heels have an ATS record of 11-10 in their 21 games as a favorite of 2.5 points or more.
• VCU has played 34 games, with 18 wins against the spread.
• The Rams have been underdogs by 2.5 points or more four times this season and have covered the spread twice.
• North Carolina is 11-7 against the spread, and 18-0 overall, at home.
• As a 2.5-point favorite or greater at home, North Carolina is 9-7 ATS.
• In away games, VCU is 6-4 against the spread, and 7-3 overall.
• This season VCU is 4-3 ATS as 2.5-point underdogs or more away from home.

Betting the Moneyline: North Carolina vs. VCU

• North Carolina has entered the game as moneyline favorites 21 times this season and won 18, or 85.7%, of those games.
• The Tar Heels have a record of 17-2, a 89.5% win rate, when favored by -149 or more by bookmakers this season.
• Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that North Carolina has a 59.8% chance to win.
• VCU has been chosen as moneyline underdogs in five games this year and has walked away with the win one time (20%) in those games.
• The Rams have yet to win this season when listed as an underdog of +121 or worse on the moneyline this season.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies VCU has a 45.2% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.