Aces vs. Liberty: Betting Trends, Odds, Records Against the Spread, Predictions - July 30

Breanna Stewart and the New York Liberty (16-12) battle A'ja Wilson and the Las Vegas Aces (19-8) on Thursday, July 30, 2026 at Michelob ULTRA Arena, starting at 10 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video.

Las Vegas prevailed by a final score of 98-83 in its last game against Portland. Leading the way on offense for the Aces was Wilson, who wound up with 25 points, 14 rebounds and four assists. Jackie Young posted 25 points.

New York beat Los Angeles 113-109 on the road in its most recent game. Its top performers were Stewart (29 PTS, 7 AST, 4 STL, 3 BLK, 57.9 FG%, 2-4 from 3PT) and Sabrina Ionescu (27 PTS, 7 REB, 6 AST, 56.3 FG%, 5-9 from 3PT).

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Aces vs. Liberty Betting Lines

Take a look below at the latest betting lines for the Aces-Liberty matchup.

• Favorite: Aces (-4.5)
• Total: 181.5
• Aces Moneyline: -188
• Liberty Moneyline: +152

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Aces Betting Insights

• Based on this matchup's moneyline, the Aces' implied win probability is 65.3%.
• Las Vegas has a 19-8 record in games when it was listed as a moneyline favorite (winning 70.4% of those games).
• The Aces have won 15 games against the spread this season, while failing to cover 12 times.
• Las Vegas' games this season have featured more combined points than this contest's total of 181.5 points 13 times.
• The Aces have an average point total of 174.1 in their matchups this year, 7.4 fewer points than this game's over/under.

Liberty Betting Insights

• The sportsbooks' moneyline implies a 39.7% chance of a victory for the Liberty.
• This season, New York has been the underdog five times and won three of those games.
• The Liberty have won 11 games against the spread this year, while failing to cover 17 times.
• New York's games this season have had a combined scoring total higher than 181.5 points in 13 of 28 outings.
• The average over/under for Liberty outings this season is 172.4, 9.1 fewer points than this game's point total.

Key Stats for Aces vs. Liberty

• Las Vegas records only 4.3 more points per game (91.3) than New York allows (87.0).
• The Aces have a 15-2 record when putting up more than 87.0 points.
• In 2026, Las Vegas' offense has been worse at home, where it averages 89.1 points per game, compared to on the road, where it scores 93.3. On the defensive side of the ball it has been worse when playing at home, where it allows 87.3 points per game, versus on the road, where it allows opponents to average 85.2.
• New York averages only 3.2 more points per game (89.4) than Las Vegas allows (86.2).
• When they score more than 86.2 points, the Liberty are 12-5.
• New York averages 85.0 points per game at home, 8.2 fewer points than away (93.2). On defense, it gives up 80.8 per game, 11.5 fewer points than on the road (92.3).

All Media on this page by Associated Press.