UMBC vs. Morgan State Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - Nov. 12

The UMBC Retrievers (1-2) host the Morgan State Bears (3-0) at Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena, tipping off at 6 p.m. ET on Thursday, November 12, 2026. The Retrievers are 6.5-point favorites in the game. The matchup has an over/under of 161.5 points.

UMBC enters this contest following a 91-61 victory over McDaniel on Monday. In UMBC's win, Devin Ceaser led the way with a team-high 17 points (adding one rebound and two assists). In its last outing on Saturday, Morgan State claimed a 73-67 win over Niagara. Keith Richards put up 22 points, four rebounds and one assist for Morgan State.

UMBC vs. Morgan State Odds and Game Time

• When: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 6 p.m. ET
• Where: Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena in Baltimore, Maryland
• Spread favorite: UMBC -6.5
• Moneyline favorite: UMBC -285
• Moneyline underdog: Morgan State +225
• Over/Under: 161.5 points

How to watch UMBC vs. Morgan State

• TV Channel: ESPN+
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: UMBC vs. Morgan State

• Last season, UMBC's games went over 161.5 points scored, its current matchup's over/under, four (out of 31) times.
• Last season, five of Morgan State's 27 matchups went over 161.5 total points scored.
• These teams averaged a combined 151.7 points per game a season ago, 9.8 fewer points than the total of 161.5 set for this game.
• Opponents of these two teams averaged a combined 145.8 points per game last season, 15.7 fewer than the point total in this game.
• The average over/under UMBC had set in matchups last year was 17.5 fewer points than this outing's point total.
• Morgan State's games in 2025 averaged a total of 153.5 points, 8.0 fewer than the point total in this matchup.

Betting the Spread: UMBC vs. Morgan State

• UMBC won 19 games against the spread last season, while failing to cover 12 times.
• The Retrievers had an ATS record of 7-5 when playing as at least 6.5-point favorites last season.
• Morgan State put together a 15-12-0 record against the spread last season.
• The Bears had an ATS record of 4-8 when playing as at least 6.5-point underdogs last season.
• UMBC was 9-6 against the spread, and 10-2 overall, at home last year.
• Last season, as a 6.5-point favorite or more at home, UMBC was 4-5 ATS.
• Morgan State was 5-9 overall, and 7-7 against the spread, on the road last season.

Betting the Moneyline: UMBC vs. Morgan State

• UMBC won 19 of the 21 games it was the moneyline favorite last season (90.5%).
• When they played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -285 or shorter, the Retrievers had a 10-1 record (winning 90.9% of their games).
• UMBC has a 74.0% chance to win this contest based on the moneyline's implied probability.
• Morgan State won five, or 25%, of the 20 games it played as underdogs last season.
• The Bears had a record of 2-10 in games where oddsmakers had them as underdogs of at least +225 on the moneyline.
• The bookmakers' moneyline implies a 30.8% chance of a victory for Morgan State.