UC Davis vs. Incarnate Word Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - Nov. 11

The UC Davis Aggies (1-1) take on the Incarnate Word Cardinals (0-3) as 11.5-point favorites on Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 2:11 p.m. ET on MW+. The point total in the matchup is set at 145.5.

UC Davis is coming off of a 65-52 victory against Menlo in its most recent outing on Thursday. In UC Davis' win, Venjamin Absoi led the way with a team-high 18 points (adding 10 rebounds and one assist). Incarnate Word lost its last game 79-60 against UTEP on Sunday. D'Arrae Goodwin scored a team-high 16 points for Incarnate Word in the loss.

UC Davis vs. Incarnate Word Odds and Game Time

• When: Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 2:11 p.m. ET
• Where: University Credit Union Center in Davis, California
• Spread favorite: UC Davis -11.5
• Moneyline favorite: UC Davis -926
• Moneyline underdog: Incarnate Word +593
• Over/Under: 145.5 points

How to watch UC Davis vs. Incarnate Word

• TV Channel: MW+
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: UC Davis vs. Incarnate Word

• Last season, UC Davis' games finished over 145.5 points scored, its current matchup's over/under, 23 (out of 31) times.
• Incarnate Word's games went over 145.5 total points scored in 13 of 28 matchups last year.
• These teams averaged a combined 151.9 points per game a season ago, 6.4 more points than the total of 145.5 set for this game.
• Opponents of these teams averaged a combined 148.8 points per game last season, 3.3 more than the point total in this game.
• The average total UC Davis had set in games last year was 7.2 more points than this outing's point total.
• Incarnate Word's games in 2025 averaged an over/under of 148.0 points, 2.5 more than the point total in this matchup.

Betting the Spread: UC Davis vs. Incarnate Word

• UC Davis covered 18 times in 31 matchups with a spread last season.
• Incarnate Word went 10-18-0 ATS last year.
• The Cardinals were an underdog by 11.5 points or more four times last year, and covered the spread in three of those contests.
• UC Davis was 9-5 against the spread, and 10-4 overall, at home last year.
• Incarnate Word was 4-10 against the spread, and 2-12 overall, on the road last season.

Betting the Moneyline: UC Davis vs. Incarnate Word

• UC Davis was the moneyline favorite 13 total times last season. It finished 11-2 in those games.
• The Aggies never played a game last season with moneyline odds of -926 or shorter.
• The implied moneyline probability for this matchup gives UC Davis a 90.3% chance to win.
• Incarnate Word won three, or 21.4%, of the 14 games it played as underdogs last season.
• Last season, the Cardinals were at least a +593 underdog on the moneyline three times, losing each of those contests.
• The implied probability of a win by Incarnate Word, based on the moneyline, is 14.4%.