Louisville vs. South Florida Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - First Round

A first-round NCAA Tournament matchup will see the 6-seed Louisville Cardinals (23-10) take the court as a 4.5-point favorite against the No. 11 seed South Florida Bulls (25-8) on Thursday at KeyBank Center. The matchup tips off at 1:30 p.m. ET on TNT. Here's what you need to know about this 6-11 matchup before filling out your brackets. The over/under is 165.5 for the matchup.

Louisville is coming off of a 78-73 loss to Miami (FL) in its most recent outing on Thursday. Ryan Conwell's team-high 22 points paced Louisville in the loss. South Florida is coming off of a 70-55 win against Wichita State in its last outing on Sunday. Wes Enis scored 19 points in South Florida's victory, leading the team.

Louisville vs. South Florida Odds and Game Time

• When: Thursday, March 19, 2026 at 1:30 p.m. ET
• Where: KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York
• Spread favorite: Louisville -4.5
• Moneyline favorite: Louisville -222
• Moneyline underdog: South Florida +178
• Over/Under: 165.5 points

How to watch Louisville vs. South Florida

• TV Channel: TNT
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: Louisville vs. South Florida

• Louisville and its opponents have combined to outscore Thursday's over/under of 165.5 points nine times this season.
• This season, 12 games South Florida has played finished with a combined score higher than 165.5 points.
• The point total for the contest of 165.5 is 7.0 points fewer than the combined points per game averages for the Cardinals (84.8) and Bulls (87.7).
• This matchup's total is 17.8 fewer points than the 147.7 these two teams combine to give up per game in 2024.
• Louisville has seen a 156.9 average over/under in its games this season, 8.6 less than the over/under in this contest.
• The over/under for this matchup is 2.3 points more than the average over/under in South Florida's games this season (163.2 points).

Betting the Spread: Louisville vs. South Florida

• Against the spread, Louisville is 16-17-0 this season.
• The Cardinals have an against the spread record of 14-9 in their 23 games when favored by 4.5 points or more so far this season.
• South Florida has played 32 games, with 18 wins against the spread.
• The Bulls covered the spread in their only game when underdogs by 4.5 points or more.
• At home this season, Louisville is 15-2 overall and 10-7 against the spread.
• This year, as a 4.5-point favorite or more at home, Louisville is 10-6 ATS.
• Away from home, South Florida is 9-3 overall and 7-5 against the spread.
• South Florida is 3-4 ATS as 4.5-point underdogs or more on the road.

Betting the Moneyline: Louisville vs. South Florida

• This season, Louisville has been moneyline favorites 28 times and won 21, or 75%, of those games.
• The Cardinals have a record of 20-1 in games where sportsbooks favor them by at least -222 on the moneyline.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 68.9% chance of a victory for Louisville.
• South Florida has been chosen as moneyline underdogs in four games this year and has walked away with the win one time (25%) in those games.
• The Bulls have played as an underdog of +178 or more just one time this year and came away with a loss in that game.
• Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that South Florida has a 36% chance of pulling out a win.