Bills vs. Patriots Week 15 Dunkel NFL Picks, Predictions and Odds

Having won two straight, the New England Patriots (11-2) will face the Buffalo Bills (9-4). Despite that, the Bills are slim favorites (-1.5). The predicted point total for the game is 49.5.

The Bills own the 14th-ranked defense this year (22.5 points allowed per game), and they've been more effective offensively, ranking fifth-best with 28.9 points per game. The Patriots rank seventh in the NFL with 27.0 points per game, but they've been lifted up by their defense, which ranks fifth-best by surrendering only 18.5 points per game.

Bills vs. Patriots Odds and Game Time

• Date: Sunday, December 14, 2025
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• City: Foxborough, Massachusetts
• Venue: Gillette Stadium
• Total: 49.5 points
• Spread: Bills -1.5
• Moneyline: Bills (-120), Patriots (+100)

How to watch Bills vs. Patriots

• TV Channel: CBS (KLFY-Lafayette, LA)
• Live Stream: Fubo

Betting the Over/Under: Bills vs. Patriots

• The Bills and their opponents have gone over 49.5 combined points in five of 13 games this season.
• A total of six out of 13 Buffalo games this season have hit the over.
• The Patriots have combined with their opponents to score more than 49.5 points in three of 13 games this season.
• In 2025, seven New England games have hit the over.
• These two teams score 55.9 points per game combined, 6.4 more than this game's over/under.
• These teams give up 41 points per game combined, 8.5 points fewer than this matchup's over/under.

Betting the Spread: Bills vs. Patriots

• Buffalo has won six games against the spread this season, while failing to cover seven times.
• When playing as at least 1.5-point favorites this season, the Bills have an ATS record of 4-7.
• The Patriots have compiled an 8-5-0 record against the spread this season.
• New England has an ATS record of 3-1 when playing as at least 1.5-point underdogs this season.
• The Patriots are 3-4 against the spread, and 5-2 overall, at home this season.
• New England is winless ATS (0-1) as 1.5-point underdogs or more at home.
• The Bills are 3-3 against the spread, and 3-3 overall, away from home.
• This year, as 1.5-point favorites or more on the road, Buffalo is 3-3 ATS.

Betting the Moneyline: Bills vs. Patriots

• Buffalo is 7-4 in games they were favored on the moneyline (winning 63.6% of those games).
• The Patriots have entered the game as underdogs four times this season and won three of those games.
• Buffalo has a 7-4 record (winning 63.6% of its games) when it has played as a moneyline favorite of -120 or shorter.
• This season, New England has won three of its four games when it is the underdog by at least +100 on the moneyline.
• Based on this game's moneyline, the Bills' implied win probability is 54.5%.

Dunkel Prediction for Bills vs. Patriots

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