UCSD vs. Cal Poly Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - Jan. 1

The UCSD Tritons (11-2, 1-0 Big West) visit the Cal Poly Mustangs (5-9, 1-1 Big West) at Robert A. Mott Athletics Center, beginning at 10 p.m. ET on Thursday, January 1, 2026. The Mustangs are 8.5-point underdogs in the game. The matchup has a point total of 171.5.

UCSD won its last outing 85-62 against Stanton on Sunday. Leo Beath scored a team-best 18 points for UCSD in the victory. Cal Poly's most recent game on Sunday ended in an 83-80 loss to Idaho in overtime. Cal Poly got a team-best 33 points from Hamad Mousa in the loss.

UCSD vs. Cal Poly Odds and Game Time

• When: Thursday, January 1, 2026 at 10 p.m. ET
• Where: Robert A. Mott Athletics Center in San Luis Obispo, California
• Spread favorite: UCSD -8.5
• Moneyline favorite: UCSD -407
• Moneyline underdog: Cal Poly +318
• Over/Under: 171.5 points

How to watch UCSD vs. Cal Poly

• TV Channel: ESPN+
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: UCSD vs. Cal Poly

• UCSD and its opponents have not combined to go over Thursday's total of 171.5 points this season.
• In Cal Poly's 12 games this season, seven finished with more combined points than Thursday's over/under of 171.5.
• The Tritons average 82.8 points per game against the Mustangs' 82.7, totaling six points under the game's over/under of 171.5.
• The 157.9 points per game these two teams allow their opponents to score on average this season are 13.6 fewer than the 171.5 total in this contest.
• On average, the over/under in UCSD's games is 18.2 fewer points than the over/under of 171.5 in this contest.
• The over/under for this matchup is 1.4 points more than the average over/under in Cal Poly's games this season (170.1 points).

Betting the Spread: UCSD vs. Cal Poly

• UCSD has played 11 games, with eight wins against the spread.
• This season, the Tritons are winless ATS when entering a game as a favorite of 8.5 points or more.
• Cal Poly is 5-7-0 against the spread this year.
• So far this year, the Mustangs have been installed as underdogs by an 8.5-point margin or more five times and are 4-1 ATS in those games.
• Cal Poly has not covered the spread at home, and is 0-3 overall there, this season.
• UCSD is 3-1 overall, with two wins against the spread, on the road.
• UCSD is winless ATS (0-1) away from home as 8.5-point favorites or more.

Betting the Moneyline: UCSD vs. Cal Poly

• This season, UCSD has won seven out of the eight games in which it has been the moneyline favorite.
• The Tritons have played as a favorite of -407 or more twice this season and split those games.
• Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that UCSD has a 80.3% chance to win.
• Cal Poly has come away with three wins in the 10 contests it has been listed as the moneyline underdog this season.
• This season, the Mustangs have been victorious two times in five chances when named as an underdog of at least +318 or worse on the moneyline.
• Cal Poly has an implied victory probability of 23.9% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.

Dunkel Index Prediction for UCSD vs. Cal Poly

• Pick ATS: UCSD (- 8.5)
• Pick OU: Under (171.5)
  
• Prediction: UCSD 86 - Cal Poly 74