UConn vs. Michigan State Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - Sweet 16

The No. 2 seed UConn Huskies (31-5) and the No. 3 seed Michigan State Spartans (27-7) square off in the NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 with a spot in the Elite Eight of the East Region bracket on the line on Friday at Capital One Arena, starting at 9:45 p.m. ET. UConn is a 1.5-point favorite in the contest, which airs on CBS. The matchup has an over/under of 136.5 points.

Last time out, UConn won on Sunday 73-57 against UCLA. Alex Karaban recorded 27 points, five rebounds and one assist for UConn. In its last matchup on Saturday, Michigan State secured a 77-69 victory over Louisville. Coen Carr scored a team-high 21 points for Michigan State in the win.

UConn vs. Michigan State Odds and Game Time

• When: Friday, March 27, 2026 at 9:45 p.m. ET
• Where: Capital One Arena in Washington D.C.
• Spread favorite: UConn -1.5
• Moneyline favorite: UConn -132
• Moneyline underdog: Michigan State +108
• Over/Under: 136.5 points

How to watch UConn vs. Michigan State

• TV Channel: CBS
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: UConn vs. Michigan State

• This season, UConn and its opponents have combined to outscore Friday's total of 136.5 points 20 times.
• A total of 26 of Michigan State's games have finished with a combined score over 136.5 points this season.
• Together, the two teams combine for 156.8 points per game, 20.3 points more than the point total of 136.5 for this game.
• The 133.5 points per game these two teams surrender to opponents on average this season are three fewer than the 136.5 total in this contest.
• UConn has seen a 142.6 average over/under in its games this season, 6.1 points more than the over/under in this matchup.
• A difference of 11.1 points separates the average over/under in Michigan State's games (147.6 points) and this matchup's over/under (136.5).

Betting the Spread: UConn vs. Michigan State

• In UConn's 36 games this season, it has 13 wins against the spread.
• This season, the Huskies have an against-the-spread record of 13-23 in their 36 games as a favorite of 1.5 points or more.
• In Michigan State's 34 games this season, it has 18 wins against the spread.
• The Spartans have been underdogs by 1.5 points or more six times this year and are 3-3 ATS in those games.
• At home this year, UConn is 4-13 against the spread and 15-2 overall.
• This year, as a 1.5-point favorite or more at home, UConn is 4-13 ATS.
• Michigan State is 6-4 overall, and 5-5 against the spread, on the road.
• As 1.5-point underdogs or more on the road, Michigan State is 3-4 ATS.

Betting the Moneyline: UConn vs. Michigan State

• UConn has won 28, or 84.8%, of the 33 games it has played as the moneyline favorite this season.
• The Huskies have a record of 28-4 in games where oddsmakers favor them by at least -132 on the moneyline.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 56.9% chance of a victory for UConn.
• Michigan State has been chosen as moneyline underdogs in six games this year and has walked away with the win two times (33.3%) in those games.
• This season, the Spartans have come away with a win two times in five chances when named as an underdog of at least +108 or worse on the moneyline.
• Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that Michigan State has a 48.1% chance of pulling out a win.