UConn vs. Michigan State Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - Sweet 16

A Sweet 16 matchup features the No. 2 seed UConn Huskies (31-5) and the No. 3 seed Michigan State Spartans (27-7) playing with a spot in the East Region bracket final up for grabs on Friday at Capital One Arena. UConn is a 1.5-point favorite in the NCAA Tournament matchup, which starts at 9:45 p.m. ET on CBS. The matchup has an over/under set at 136 points.

UConn is coming off of a 73-57 win over UCLA in its most recent game on Sunday. In UConn's win, Alex Karaban led the way with a team-high 27 points (adding five rebounds and one assist). Michigan State heads into this matchup on the heels of a 77-69 win against Louisville on Saturday. Coen Carr scored a team-high 21 points for Michigan State in the win.

UConn vs. Michigan State Odds and Game Time

• When: Friday, March 27, 2026 at 9:45 p.m. ET
• Where: Capital One Arena in Washington D.C.
• Spread favorite: UConn -1.5
• Moneyline favorite: UConn -132
• Moneyline underdog: Michigan State +109
• Over/Under: 136 points

How to watch UConn vs. Michigan State

• TV Channel: CBS
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: UConn vs. Michigan State

• UConn and its opponents have combined to outscore Friday's over/under (136 points) 21 times this season.
• This season, 26 of Michigan State's games have finished with a combined score higher than 136 points.
• Together, the two teams combine for 156.8 points per game, 20.8 points more than the total of 136 for this game.
• This game's total is 2.5 fewer points than the 133.5 these two teams combine to allow per game in 2024.
• UConn has seen a 142.6 average over/under in its games this season, 6.6 points more than the over/under in this matchup.
• Michigan State's games have an average over/under of 147.6 points this season, 11.6 more points than the over/under for this contest.

Betting the Spread: UConn vs. Michigan State

• UConn has 13 wins against the spread in 36 games this year.
• This season, the Huskies have an ATS record of 13-23 in their 36 games as a favorite of 1.5 points or more.
• Michigan State has 18 wins against the spread in 34 games this year.
• The Spartans are 3-3 ATS when underdogs by 1.5 points or more this year.
• UConn is 15-2 overall, and 4-13 against the spread, at home.
• UConn is 4-13 ATS as a 1.5-point favorite or greater at home.
• Michigan State is 5-5 against the spread, and 6-4 overall, away from home.
• As 1.5-point underdogs or more away from home, Michigan State is 3-4 ATS.

Betting the Moneyline: UConn vs. Michigan State

• This season, UConn has won 28 out of the 33 games, or 84.8%, in which it has been the moneyline favorite.
• This season, the Huskies have won 28 of their 32 games, or 87.5%, when favored by at least -132 on the moneyline.
• Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that UConn has a 56.9% chance to win.
• Michigan State has been a moneyline underdog in six games this season and has come away with the win two times (33.3%) in those contests.
• The Spartans have a mark of 2-3 in contests where sportsbooks give them odds of +109 or worse on the moneyline.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies Michigan State has a 47.8% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.