Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills Betting Preview/Prop Picks
07 October 2022
Time: 1:00 pm ET
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 123.979; Buffalo 145.638
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 21 ½; 51
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo by 14; 47
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-47); Over
Before this game even begins, there are questions as to who will be the starting quarterback. The Pittsburgh Steelers sent out rookie Kenny Pickett last week, who threw three interceptions.
He had a few rushing touchdowns, but the Steelers still lost the game to the New York Jets. This week, they face a much tougher opponent in the 3-1 Buffalo Bills, led by Josh Allen.
The Buffalo Bills come into this game as heavy favorites (-14). After their Week 3 loss to the Miami Dolphins, they bounced back by beating the Baltimore Ravens. The thing about the Bills is they perform well on both sides of the ball.
With one of the best offenses in the league, they'll have to put up a lot of points to cover this spread. They'll also need to play very tough defense.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Pickett or Trubisky? Who will take the field
At the moment, all signs show Kenny Pickett getting the start under center again this weekend. Last week, as we mentioned, he threw three interceptions in a 24-20 loss to the New York Jets.
He only passed for 120 yards throughout the entire game. In our opinion, this is a mistake by the Steelers. They should start Trubisky, who is actually familiar with the Bills' defense.
For some time, Trubisky played for the Buffalo Bills right behind Josh Allen. If there's anyone that knows their defense, it's Trubisky. The Steelers' offense has struggled enough this season, putting up just 18.5 points per game.
They rank 28th in passing yards (181.5) and 23rd in rushing yards (97.3). Now isn't the time to test out a rookie against a stingy defense.
Buffalo Bills: Bills boast the No.2 defense in the NFL
The Buffalo Bills have a record of 3-1, and you can credit their defense for that. In their first game of the year, they beat the Los Angeles Rams 31-10.
They followed this up with a 41-7 win over the Tennessee Titans. On average, this team allows just 14.5 points per game, ranking second in the NFL. The best part is that it isn't the only thing that they're great at.
Averaging 297.0 passing yards per game, the Bills have the second-best passing offense. They balance this out with a running game that averages 115.5 yards per game.
Although they aren't racking up the running yards, they still rank 12th overall. Playing the Steelers' defense, which allows an average of 22.5 points per game, shouldn't be a problem.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills Betting Pick
This one is pretty clear to us, even with the Bills coming in as 14-point favorites. The Steelers have done nothing this season to show they can keep up with the Bills.
Steelers lost 29-17 to the Cleveland Browns, a strictly run-first offense. They also just lost to the New York Jets by four points, so there's no reason to pick the Steelers.
Instead, we'll go with the Buffalo Bills, who have proved themselves this season. They have a 2-1-1 record against the spread and are the best pick at home over the Steelers.
DunkelIndex Free Pick: Buffalo Bills -14, OVER
Prop Picks
Buffalo (-120) OVER 29.5 Points
Buffalo is averaging 28.5 points per game on offense, which ranks No. 4 in the NFL. Pittsburgh is allowing 22.5 points per game on defense, which ranks No. 15 in the NFL. That average increases to 24.5 points per game on the road. Scores have gone OVER in each of the Steelers’ last four games in Week 5.
With Dunkel predicting a Buffalo win by the score of 36-15, take the Bills (-120) to finish OVER their Vegas team total of 29.5 points against the Steelers.
Devin Singletary (-140) OVER 17.5 Receiving Yards
Singletary is averaging 35.3 receiving yards per game (17 catches, 141 yards) this season, which ranks No. 4 on the Bills. Pittsburgh is allowing 251.5 passing yards per game, which ranks No. 21 in the NFL.
With Dunkel predicting the final score going OVER the Vegas point total, take Singletary (-140) to finish OVER 17.5 receiving yards against the Steelers.
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All Media on this page by Associated Press.
