North Texas vs. San Diego State Dunkel NCAA Football Picks, Predictions and Odds - New Mexico Bowl

The North Texas Mean Green take on the San Diego State Aztecs in the New Mexico Bowl as 6.5-point favorites on December 27, 2025 at 5:45 p.m. ET on ESPN.

In their last game, the Mean Green lost versus the Tulane Green Wave, 34-21.

In their last contest, the Aztecs lost versus the New Mexico Lobos, 23-17.

North Texas vs. San Diego State Predictions

Ahead of the upcoming game between the North Texas Mean Green and San Diego State Aztecs, computer-derived against-the-spread, over/under, and score predictions are below, based on data from Dunkel Index.

• Pick ATS: Aztecs (+ 6.5)
• Pick OU: Under (53.5)
  
• Prediction: Aztecs 25 - Mean Green 24

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North Texas vs. San Diego State Moneylines

Snag a look below at the most recent moneylines for the Mean Green-Aztecs matchup.

• North Texas Moneyline: -230
• San Diego State Moneyline: +190

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North Texas Betting Insights

• North Texas has won 84.6% of the games this season when it was favored on the moneyline (11-2).
• North Texas has won all nine games it has played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -230 or shorter.
• Mean Green games this season have featured more combined points than this contest's total of 53.5 points 11 times.
• The average total in Mean Green contests this year is 62.3, 8.8 more points than this game's over/under.
• The Mean Green score the most points in college football this season, while the Aztecs' offense racks up the 92nd-most.

San Diego State Betting Insights

• San Diego State has split the two games it has played as underdogs this season.
• San Diego State has played as an underdog of +190 or more once this season and won that game.
• San Diego State and its opponents have scored more than 53.5 combined points just twice this season.
• The average over/under for San Diego State's contests this season is 45.3, 8.2 fewer points than this game's point total.

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Key Stats for North Texas vs. San Diego State

• The Mean Green rank 64th in total defense this year (370.4 yards allowed per game), but they've been playing really well on the other side of the ball, ranking best in the FBS with 502.8 total yards per game.
• North Texas has the 69th-ranked defense this season (24.9 points allowed per game), and has been better on the other side of the ball, ranking best with 44.8 points per game.
• The Aztecs' defense has been leading the charge for the team, as they rank sixth-best in the FBS with 267.5 total yards surrendered per game. In terms of offense, they are posting 341.8 total yards per game, which ranks 104th.
• San Diego State ranks 89th in the FBS with 24.7 points per contest, but it has been lifted up by its defense, which ranks fourth-best by giving up only 12.6 points per contest.