Patriots vs. Dolphins Week 18 Dunkel NFL Picks, Predictions and Odds

In a matchup of two division rivals, the New England Patriots (13-3) will play the Miami Dolphins (7-9). The Patriots are heavy favorites (-13.5). The total for this one is set at 44.5 points.

The Patriots have been firing on all cylinders this year, as they rank fifth-best in scoring offense (28.3 points per game) and fifth-best in scoring defense (19.4 points allowed per game). The Dolphins rank 25th with 308.3 total yards per contest on offense, and they rank 21st with 342.0 total yards given up per game on defense.

Patriots vs. Dolphins Odds and Game Time

• Date: Sunday, January 4, 2026
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• City: Foxborough, Massachusetts
• Venue: Gillette Stadium
• Total: 44.5 points
• Spread: Patriots -13.5
• Moneyline: Patriots (-1000), Dolphins (+650)

How to watch Patriots vs. Dolphins

• TV Channel: FOX (WTWC-Tallahassee, FL - Thomasville, GA)
• Live Stream: Fubo

Betting the Over/Under: Patriots vs. Dolphins

• The Patriots' 16 games this season have gone over this contest's total of 44.5 points nine times.
• In New England's 16 games this season, the combined scoring has gone over the point total 10 times.
• The Dolphins and their opponents have combined to score more than 44.5 points in six of 16 games this season.
• In 2025, nine Miami games have gone over the point total.
• The two teams average 49.4 points per game combined, 4.9 more points than this game's total.
• Opponents of these teams average 43.5 points per game combined, 1.0 fewer than this matchup's total.

Betting the Spread: Patriots vs. Dolphins

• New England has covered the spread 10 times in 16 games this season.
• New England has been favored by 13.5 points or more two times this season, and covered the spread in one of those matchups.
• The Dolphins have compiled an 8-8-0 ATS record so far this year.
• At home this season, the Patriots are 5-3 overall and 3-5 against the spread.
• At home, New England is winless ATS (0-1) as 13.5-point favorites or greater.
• In away games, the Dolphins are 2-5 overall and 3-4 against the spread.

Betting the Moneyline: Patriots vs. Dolphins

• New England has won nine of the 10 games it was listed as the moneyline favorite this season (90%).
• The Dolphins have entered the game as underdogs 10 times this season and won three of those games.
• New England has not played a game this season with moneyline odds of -1000 or shorter.
• Miami has not entered a game this season with longer moneyline odds than +650.
• The Patriots have a 90.9% chance to win this game based on the moneyline's implied probability.

Dunkel Prediction for Patriots vs. Dolphins

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