Missouri State vs. UT Rio Grande Valley Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - Nov. 22

The Missouri State Bears (2-2) host the UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros (2-2) at Great Southern Bank Arena, tipping off at 5 p.m. ET on Saturday, November 22, 2025. The Vaqueros are 1.5-point underdogs in the game. The matchup has an over/under of 150.5.

Missouri State heads into this contest following a 67-49 loss to UT Arlington on Saturday. In Missouri State's loss, Michael Osei-Bonsu led the way with a team-high 22 points (adding five rebounds and one assist). In its last matchup on Monday, UT Rio Grande Valley claimed a 110-53 victory over Southwestern Adventist. Koree Cotton's team-leading 18 points paced UT Rio Grande Valley in the win.

Missouri State vs. UT Rio Grande Valley Odds and Game Time

• When: Saturday, November 22, 2025 at 5 p.m. ET
• Where: Great Southern Bank Arena in Springfield, Missouri
• Spread favorite: Missouri State -1.5
• Moneyline favorite: Missouri State -127
• Moneyline underdog: UT Rio Grande Valley +105
• Over/Under: 150.5 points

How to watch Missouri State vs. UT Rio Grande Valley

• TV Channel: ESPN+
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: Missouri State vs. UT Rio Grande Valley

• Missouri State played five games with more than 150.5 points scored, its current matchup's over/under, last year.
• UT Rio Grande Valley played 17 games last year (63% of opportunities) in which the teams combined to score more than 150.5 points.
• The two teams averaged a combined 5.8 fewer points per game (144.7) a season ago than this game's over/under of 150.5 points.
• The Bears and the Vaqueros saw their opponents average a combined 5.6 fewer points per game last season than the over/under of 150.5 set in this matchup.
• The average point total for Missouri State's games last year was 11.7 fewer points than the over/under of 150.5 in this matchup.
• The average total for UT Rio Grande Valley's games in 2024 was 0.2 more points than the point total of 150.5 in this outing.

Betting the Spread: Missouri State vs. UT Rio Grande Valley

• Missouri State went 17-14-0 ATS last season.
• The Bears covered the spread twice last season (2-6 ATS) when playing as at least 1.5-point favorites.
• UT Rio Grande Valley won 13 games against the spread last year, while failing to cover 14 times.
• The Vaqueros covered the spread seven times last year (7-5 ATS) when playing as at least 1.5-point underdogs.
• At home last season, Missouri State was 7-7 against the spread and 6-8 overall.
• At home last season, as a 1.5-point favorite or greater, Missouri State had one win ATS (1-5).
• In away games last season, UT Rio Grande Valley was 2-11 overall and 6-7 against the spread.
• UT Rio Grande Valley had one win ATS (1-2) as a 1.5-point underdog or more away from home.

Betting the Moneyline: Missouri State vs. UT Rio Grande Valley

• Missouri State finished with a 3-5 record in games it was favored on the moneyline last season (winning 37.5% of those games).
• In games they played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -127 or shorter, the Bears went 3-5 (37.5%).
• The implied moneyline probability in this matchup gives Missouri State a 55.9% chance to win.
• UT Rio Grande Valley won three, or 23.1%, of the 13 games it played as underdogs last season.
• The Vaqueros had a record of 3-9 in games where bookmakers had them as underdogs of at least +105 on the moneyline.
• Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that UT Rio Grande Valley has a 48.8% chance to win.