Missouri State vs. Arkansas State Dunkel NCAA Football Picks, Predictions and Odds - XBox Bowl

The Missouri State Bears square off against the Arkansas State Red Wolves in the XBox Bowl as only 1.5-point favorites on December 18, 2025 at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN2.

Against the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs in their last game, the Bears lost 42-30.

Last time around, the Red Wolves defeated the Appalachian State Mountaineers, with 30-29 being the final score.

Missouri State vs. Arkansas State Predictions

Ahead of the upcoming contest between the Missouri State Bears and Arkansas State Red Wolves, computer-derived against-the-spread, over/under, and score predictions are below, per Dunkel Index.

• Pick ATS: Bears (- 1.5)
• Pick OU: Over (54.5)
  
• Prediction: Bears 31 - Red Wolves 28

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Missouri State vs. Arkansas State Moneylines

Snag a peek below at the most recent moneylines for the Bears-Red Wolves game.

• Missouri State Moneyline: -113
• Arkansas State Moneyline: -105

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Missouri State Betting Insights

• Missouri State has won five of the six games it was favored on the moneyline this season (83.3%).
• In games it has played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -113 or shorter, Missouri State has a record of 5-1 (83.3%).
• The Bears 12 games this season have gone over this contest's total of 54.5 points four times.
• The average total in Bears contests this year is 53.3, 1.2 fewer points than this game's over/under.
• The Red Wolves are college football's 92nd-highest scoring team this season compared to the 85th-ranked Bears.

Arkansas State Betting Insights

• This season, Arkansas State has won four out of the eight games in which it has been the underdog.
• Arkansas State is 3-4 this season when entering a game as the underdog by -105 or more on the moneyline.
• Arkansas State and its opponents have combined to score more than 54.5 points in six of 12 games this season.
• Arkansas State's games this year have had a 57.4-point total on average, 2.9 more points than this matchup's over/under.

Watch Missouri State vs. Arkansas State on Fubo.

Key Stats for Missouri State vs. Arkansas State

• The Bears are averaging 391.8 yards per game on offense, which ranks them 65th in the FBS. Defensively, they rank 80th, surrendering 384.8 yards per game.
• Missouri State is totaling 25.4 points per game on offense this season (82nd in the FBS), and is giving up 28.3 points per game (89th) on defense.
• The Red Wolves rank 72nd in total yards per game (384.7), but they've been less productive on the defensive side of the ball, ranking 22nd-worst in the FBS with 416 total yards surrendered per contest.
• From an offensive angle, Arkansas State is accumulating 24.4 points per game (90th-ranked). It ranks 83rd in the FBS on the other side of the ball (27.3 points surrendered per game).