Michigan State vs. Louisville Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - Second Round

The No. 3 seed Michigan State Spartans (26-7) and the No. 6 seed Louisville Cardinals (24-10) meet in the NCAA Tournament with a spot in the Sweet 16 of the East Region bracket on the line on Saturday at KeyBank Center, starting at 2:45 p.m. ET. Michigan State is a 4.5-point favorite in the Round of 32 matchup, which airs on CBS. The matchup has a point total of 150.5.

Michigan State heads into this contest on the heels of a 92-67 win against North Dakota State on Thursday. Carson Cooper's team-high 20 points led Michigan State in the win. Louisville's last outing on Thursday ended in an 83-79 win over South Florida. In Louisville's win, Isaac McKneely led the team with 23 points (adding three rebounds and two assists).

Michigan State vs. Louisville Odds and Game Time

• When: Saturday, March 21, 2026 at 2:45 p.m. ET
• Where: KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York
• Spread favorite: Michigan State -4.5
• Moneyline favorite: Michigan State -221
• Moneyline underdog: Louisville +178
• Over/Under: 150.5 points

How to watch Michigan State vs. Louisville

• TV Channel: CBS
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: Michigan State vs. Louisville

• This season, 10 of Michigan State's 33 games have gone over Saturday's over/under of 150.5 points.
• There have been 23 Louisville games that ended with a combined score higher than 150.5 points this season.
• Together, the two teams combine for 164 points per game, 13.5 points more than the point total of 150.5 for this contest.
• These two teams give up a combined 140.8 points per game, 9.7 less than this contest's over/under.
• On average, the over/under in Michigan State's games is 2.8 fewer points than the over/under of 150.5 in this contest.
• The over/under for this contest is 6.6 points lower than the average over/under in Louisville's games this season of 157.1.

Betting the Spread: Michigan State vs. Louisville

• Michigan State has 17 wins against the spread in 33 games this year.
• This season, the Spartans have an against-the-spread record of 9-12 in their 21 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or more.
• Louisville has played 34 games, with 16 wins against the spread.
• The Cardinals have yet to cover the spread this season when underdogs by 4.5 points or more.
• Michigan State is 15-2 overall, and 8-9 against the spread, at home.
• As a 4.5-point favorite or greater at home, Michigan State is 6-7 ATS.
• Louisville is 4-7 overall, and 3-8 against the spread, away from home.
• Louisville has two wins ATS (2-2) as 4.5-point underdogs or more on the road.

Betting the Moneyline: Michigan State vs. Louisville

• This season, Michigan State has been moneyline favorites 27 times and won 24, or 88.9%, of those games.
• This season, the Spartans have won 19 of their 21 games, or 90.5%, when favored by at least -221 on the moneyline.
• Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that Michigan State has a 68.8% chance to win.
• Louisville has been chosen as moneyline underdogs in four games this year and has walked away with the win one time (25%) in those games.
• The Cardinals have played as an underdog of +178 or more just one time this year and came away with a loss in that game.
• Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that Louisville has a 36% chance of pulling out a win.