Michigan vs. San Diego State Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - Nov. 24

The No. 7 Michigan Wolverines (4-0) visit the San Diego State Aztecs (2-1) at Michelob ULTRA Arena, starting at 10:30 p.m. ET on Monday, November 24, 2025. The Wolverines are 5.5-point favorites in the game. The point total in the matchup is set at 148.

Michigan enters this matchup after an 86-61 victory against Middle Tennessee on Wednesday. In Michigan's win, Yaxel Lendeborg led the way with a team-high 25 points (adding 12 rebounds and three assists). San Diego State is coming off of a 108-107 OT loss to Troy in its most recent outing on Tuesday. Miles Byrd's team-leading 24 points paced San Diego State in the loss.

Michigan vs. San Diego State Odds and Game Time

• When: Monday, November 24, 2025 at 10:30 p.m. ET
• Where: Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada
• Spread favorite: Michigan -5.5
• Moneyline favorite: Michigan -268
• Moneyline underdog: San Diego State +216
• Over/Under: 148 points

How to watch Michigan vs. San Diego State

• TV Channel: truTV
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: Michigan vs. San Diego State

• Of 37 games last year, Michigan had 21 with over 148 points scored, its current matchup's total.
• San Diego State played four games last season (13.3% of opportunities) in which the teams combined to score more than 148 points.
• The Wolverines and the Aztecs combined to average 0.8 more points per game a season ago than the total of 148 set for this game.
• Opponents of the two teams averaged a combined 11.9 fewer points per game (136.1) last season than this matchup's total of 148 points.
• Michigan's average point total in outings last year was 149.4, 1.4 points higher than the total in this game.
• The average over/under for San Diego State's games in 2024 was 12.6 fewer points than the point total of 148 in this game.

Betting the Spread: Michigan vs. San Diego State

• Michigan covered 18 times in 37 matchups with a spread last season.
• The Wolverines had an ATS record of 8-8 when playing as at least 5.5-point favorites last season.
• San Diego State put together a 12-18-0 ATS record last season.
• The Aztecs covered the spread once when an underdog by 5.5 points or more last year (in three opportunities).
• At home last season, San Diego State was 11-3 overall and 6-8 against the spread.
• As a 5.5-point underdog or more at home last year, San Diego State was 4-6 ATS.
• On the road last season, Michigan was 7-3 overall and 5-5 against the spread.
• Michigan had one win ATS (1-2) as a 5.5-point favorite or more on the road.

Betting the Moneyline: Michigan vs. San Diego State

• Michigan finished with a 20-7 record in games it was favored on the moneyline last season (winning 74.1% of those games).
• When playing as a moneyline favorite with odds of -268 or shorter, the Wolverines had a 14-1 record (winning 93.3% of their games).
• Based on this matchup's moneyline, Michigan's implied win probability is 72.8%.
• Last season, San Diego State was the underdog 11 times and won four, or 36.4%, of those games.
• The Aztecs played as an underdog of +216 or more twice last season and split those games.
• The implied probability of a win by San Diego State, based on the moneyline, is 31.6%.

Dunkel Index Prediction for Michigan vs. San Diego State

• Pick ATS: San Diego State (+ 5.5)
• Pick OU: Over (148)
  
• Prediction: San Diego State 77 - Michigan 76