Lightning vs. Penguins NHL Predictions, Picks and Odds - Dec. 4

The Tampa Bay Lightning (16-8-2) host the Pittsburgh Penguins (13-7-5) on Thursday, Dec. 4, with the Lightning coming off a defeat in their last game and the Penguins a win. The Penguins are underdogs away from home, at +154, and the Lightning are -185.

Tampa Bay fell 2-1 on the road its last time out on Dec. 2 against the New York Islanders. Three Lightning skaters had one point each, including Dominic James (one goal) and Nicholas Paul (one assist).

Pittsburgh won its last game 5-1 on the road over the Philadelphia Flyers on Dec. 1. Bryan Rust had three points (one goal and two assists) in that matchup for the Penguins.

Here is our pick for who will secure the victory in Thursday's game.

Lightning vs. Penguins Predictions & Pick

For predictions on the upcoming contest between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Pittsburgh Penguins, computer-calculated moneyline, over/under, and score predictions are below, sourced from Dunkel Index.

• Prediction: Penguins 4 - Lightning 3
• Pick OU: Over 6.5 (Dunkel projecting 7.01 goals)
  

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Lightning vs. Penguins Moneylines

Take a look below at the latest moneylines for the Lightning-Penguins matchup.

• Favorite: Lightning (-185)
• Underdog: Penguins (+154)

Lightning Betting Insights

• The Lightning have won 61.1% of their games when favored on the moneyline this season (11-7).
• Tampa Bay is 2-1 (winning 66.7% of its games) when it has played with moneyline odds of -185 or shorter.
• Based on the moneyline in this contest, the Lightning's implied win probability is 64.9%.
• In 10 games this season, Tampa Bay and its opponent have combined for more than 6.5 goals.

Penguins Betting Insights

• This season the Penguins have won 10 of the 17 games, or 58.8%, in which they've been an underdog.
• Pittsburgh has a record of 3-2 in games when oddsmakers have them as underdogs of at least +154 on the moneyline.
• The Penguins have a 39.4% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• Pittsburgh has played 11 games this season that ended with more than 6.5 goals.

Lightning Key Stats

• Tampa Bay has scored the eighth-most goals in the NHL (85 total, 3.3 per game).
• The Lightning have given up 67 total goals (2.6 per game), the third-fewest in league play.
• It has the league's fourth-best goal differential at +18.
• The 12 power-play goals the Lightning have recorded this season (to rank 25th in the NHL) have come on 80 power-play chances.
• Tampa Bay has the league's 27th-ranked power-play conversion rate (15%).
• The Lightning have capitalized with two shorthanded goals this season (11th among NHL teams).
• Tampa Bay has a league-best 89.16% penalty-kill percentage.
• Tampa Bay wins 45.6% of its faceoffs (30th in NHL).
• The Lightning shoot 12.3% as a team (fifth in the league).

Penguins Key Stats

• Pittsburgh's 79 goals on the season (3.2 per game) rank 18th in the league.
• The Penguins allow 2.7 goals per game (68 in total), the fourth-fewest in the NHL.
• With a goal differential of +11, the team is sixth-best in the league in that category.
• With 20 power-play goals (on 60 chances), the Penguins are fourth-best in the NHL.
• With a 33.33% power-play conversion rate, Pittsburgh leads the NHL.
• This season, the Penguins have one shorthanded goal (20th in league).
• Pittsburgh's has the fourth-best penalty-kill percentage (84.93%).
• Pittsburgh is 16th in faceoff win percentage in the NHL (49.8%).
• With a shooting percentage of 11.7%, the Penguins are 10th in the league.