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Lightning vs. Blackhawks NHL Predictions, Picks and Odds - Oct. 23

23 October 2025 By Data Skrive

The Tampa Bay Lightning and Chicago Blackhawks -- the former coming off a defeat, the latter a win -- will face each other on Thursday at 6:45 p.m. ET, at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa. The Blackhawks are big underdogs away from home, at +260, and the Lightning are -325.

Tampa Bay was handed a 3-2 defeat on the road its last time out on Oct. 18 against the Columbus Blue Jackets. Anthony Cirelli (one goal) and Erik Cernak (one assist) were among the six Lightning players who collected one point each.

Chicago won at home in its most recent game on Oct. 19, 2-1 over the Anaheim Ducks. Ryan Donato had two points (one goal and one assist) in that matchup for the Blackhawks.

Ahead of watching this matchup, here is our prediction for which team will emerge victorious in Thursday's hockey action.

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Lightning vs. Blackhawks Predictions & Pick

Ahead of the upcoming game between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Chicago Blackhawks, computer-calculated moneyline, over/under, and score predictions are below, based on data from Dunkel Index.

  • Prediction: Lightning 4 - Blackhawks 3
  • Pick OU: Over 6.5 (Dunkel projecting 7.01 goals)

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Lightning vs. Blackhawks Moneylines

Snag a peek below at the latest moneylines for the Lightning-Blackhawks game.

  • Favorite: Lightning (-325)
  • Underdog: Blackhawks (+260)

Lightning Betting Insights

  • The Lightning are 1-3 when favored on the moneyline this season.
  • Tampa Bay has not played with moneyline odds of -325 or shorter.
  • The Lightning have a 76.5% chance (based on the moneyline's implied probability) to win this contest.
  • Tampa Bay and its opponent have gone over 6.5 combined goals in three of six games this season.

Blackhawks Betting Insights

  • This season the Blackhawks have been an underdog seven times, and won three of those games.
  • Chicago has not been a bigger underdog this season than the +260 moneyline in this game.
  • The Blackhawks have a 27.8% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
  • Chicago and its opponent have combined for more than 6.5 goals twice this season.

Lightning Key Stats

  • Tampa Bay's 16 total goals (2.7 per game) make it the 28th-ranked scoring team in the league.
  • The Lightning have conceded 21 total goals (3.5 per game), ranking 18th in NHL play in goals against.
  • Its -5 goal differential ranks 26th in the league.
  • The four power-play goals the Lightning have put up this season rank 18th in the NHL (on 16 power-play chances).
  • Tampa Bay has the league's ninth-best power-play conversion rate (25%).
  • Tampa Bay kills 90.48% of opponent power plays, the fourth-best penalty-kill percentage in the league.
  • Tampa Bay wins 41.8% of its faceoffs (32nd in NHL).
  • The Lightning have an 11.4% shooting percentage as a team, which ranks 11th in the league.

Blackhawks Key Stats

  • Chicago's 22 goals on the season (3.1 per game) rank 10th in the league.
  • The Blackhawks allow just 2.4 goals per game (17 in total), the 10th-fewest in the league.
  • It has the ninth-best goal differential in the league at +5.
  • The Blackhawks have four power-play goals (18th in NHL) on 22 chances.
  • Chicago scores on 18.18% of its power plays, No. 21 in the NHL.
  • Chicago's has the 13th-ranked penalty-kill percentage (81.82%).
  • Chicago is 26th in faceoff win rate in the NHL (47.3%).
  • With a shooting percentage of 12.9%, the Blackhawks are fifth in the league.

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