Lynx vs. Mercury: Betting Trends, Odds, Records Against the Spread, Predictions - Sept. 26

In Game 3 of the WNBA playoffs semifinals, the Minnesota Lynx will take on the Phoenix Mercury.

Minnesota lost to Phoenix 89-83 at home in its last matchup. Napheesa Collier (24 PTS, 3 STL, 2 BLK, 45.5 FG%, 2-8 from 3PT) and Kayla McBride (21 PTS, 53.3 FG%, 4-8 from 3PT) paced the Lynx, while Satou Sabally (24 PTS, 9 REB, 40.9 FG%, 5-11 from 3PT) and Alyssa Thomas (19 PTS, 8 REB, 13 AST, 40.0 FG%) led the Mercury.

Bet now!

Lynx vs. Mercury Predictions

Ahead of the upcoming game between the Lynx and Mercury, computer-derived against-the-spread, over/under, and score predictions are below, based on data from Dunkel Index.

• Pick ATS: Lynx (- 3.5)
• Pick OU: Over (158.5)
  
• Prediction: Lynx 87 - Mercury 74

Lynx vs. Mercury Betting Lines

Grab a look below at the most recent betting lines for the Lynx-Mercury game.

• Favorite: Lynx (-3.5)
• Total: 158.5
• Lynx Moneyline: -170
• Mercury Moneyline: +138

Pick with the best in the business! Get free picks for every game, every week at the Dunkel Index.

Lynx Betting Insights

• The Lynx have a 63.0% chance to win this matchup based on the moneyline's implied probability.
• Minnesota has been a moneyline favorite 45 times this season. They've finished 35-10 in those games.
• The Lynx are 26-20-2 ATS this season.
• Minnesota's games this season have gone over this contest's total of 158.5 points 29 times.
• The average total in Lynx outings this year is 160.6, 2.1 more than this matchup's over/under.

Mercury Betting Insights

• The moneyline for this contest implies a 42.0% chance of a victory for the Mercury.
• This season, Phoenix has been the underdog 17 times and won eight, or 47.1%, of those games.
• The Mercury have compiled a 25-24-0 record against the spread this year.
• Phoenix has combined with its opponents to score more than 158.5 points in 27 of 49 games this season.
• Mercury games this year have had a 163.1-point total on average, 4.6 more points than this matchup's over/under.

Key Stats for Lynx vs. Mercury

• The 86.1 points per game Minnesota averages are 6.0 more points than Phoenix allows (80.1).
• The Lynx are 26-4 when scoring more than 80.1 points.
• Minnesota has scored at a higher rate at home than away from home in the 2025 season (87.3 at home versus 84.8 on the road), and it has surrendered fewer points at home than on the road (74.3 per home game versus 79.0 on the road).
• Phoenix's 82.8 points per game are 6.1 more points than the 76.7 Minnesota allows.
• The Mercury have put together a 24-8 record in games when they've scored more than 76.7 points.
• In 2025, Phoenix is putting up more points at home (83.8 per game) than on the road (81.8). And it is conceding fewer points at home (76.9) than away (83.4).

All Media on this page by Associated Press.