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Capitals vs. Maple Leafs NHL Predictions, Picks and Odds - Dec. 18

18 December 2025 By Data Skrive

The Washington Capitals and Toronto Maple Leafs -- the former coming off a loss, the latter a victory -- will meet on Thursday at 7 p.m. ET, at Capital One Arena in Washington. The Maple Leafs are underdogs away from home, at +130, and the Capitals are -155.

Washington lost 5-0 on the road in its last game on Dec. 16 against the Minnesota Wild. Charlie Lindgren took the loss in goal for the Capitals, making 27 saves and giving up five goals.

Toronto won its last game 3-2 at home over the Chicago Blackhawks on Dec. 16. William Nylander (two assists) and Auston Matthews (one goal and one assist) each had two points for the Maple Leafs in that matchup.

Prepare for this matchup with a glimpse at who we predict will come out on top in Thursday's game.

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Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Predictions & Pick

For the upcoming game between the Washington Capitals and Toronto Maple Leafs, computer-calculated moneyline, over/under, and score predictions are below, per Dunkel Index.

  • Prediction: Capitals 4 - Maple Leafs 3
  • Pick OU: Over 5.5 (Dunkel projecting 7.02 goals)

Pick with the best in the business! Get free picks for every game, every week at the Dunkel Index.

Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Moneylines

Snag a look below at the most up-to-date moneylines for the Capitals-Maple Leafs game.

  • Favorite: Capitals (-155)
  • Underdog: Maple Leafs (+130)

Capitals Betting Insights

  • The Capitals are 15-9 when favored on the moneyline this season.
  • Washington is 5-4 (winning 55.6% of its games) when it has played with moneyline odds of -155 or shorter.
  • Based on the moneyline in this contest, the Capitals' implied win probability is 60.8%.
  • In 18 of 33 matches this season, Washington and its opponent have combined for more than 5.5 goals.

Maple Leafs Betting Insights

  • The Maple Leafs have been an underdog in 11 games this season, and won four (36.4%).
  • Toronto has a record of 2-1 in games when sportsbooks have them as underdogs of at least +130 on the moneyline.
  • The sportsbooks' moneyline implies a 43.5% chance of victory for the Maple Leafs.
  • Toronto has combined with its opponent to score more than 5.5 goals in 21 of 32 games this season.

Capitals Key Stats

  • Washington has scored the eighth-most goals in the NHL (106 total, 3.2 per game).
  • The Capitals have given up 84 total goals (2.6 per game), ranking second in league action for the fewest goals against.
  • Its +22 goal differential is the third-best in the league.
  • The 15 power-play goals the Capitals have recorded this season rank 26th in the NHL (on 96 power-play chances).
  • Washington has the league's 27th-ranked power-play conversion rate (15.63%).
  • The one shorthanded goal the Capitals have scored this season rank 22nd among NHL squads.
  • Washington's 75.49% penalty-kill success rate ranks 28th in the league.
  • Washington wins 48% of its faceoffs to rank 23rd in the NHL.
  • The Capitals connect on 11% of their shots (13th in the league).

Maple Leafs Key Stats

  • Toronto has 105 goals this season (3.3 per game), 11th in the league.
  • The Maple Leafs have allowed 103 total goals this season (3.2 per game), 18th in the NHL.
  • it has the 15th-ranked goal differential in the league at +2.
  • With 12 power-play goals (on 80 chances), the Maple Leafs are 32nd in the NHL.
  • Toronto has the league's 30th-ranked power-play percentage (15%).
  • In terms of shorthanded goals, the Maple Leafs have two.
  • Toronto's has the eighth-best penalty-kill percentage (82.76%).
  • Toronto wins 56.8% of faceoffs, No. 1 in the NHL.
  • The Maple Leafs' 12.2% shooting percentage is third in the league.

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