Falcons vs. Saints Week 18 Dunkel NFL Picks, Predictions and Odds

The Atlanta Falcons (7-9) and New Orleans Saints (6-10) will play each other, with both teams coming off victories -- the Falcons have won three in a row, the Saints four in a row. Atlanta is the favorite (currently -3.5). The expected point total for the matchup is set at 43.5.

The Falcons rank 23rd in scoring offense (20.9 points per game) and 20th in scoring defense (24 points allowed per game) this year. In terms of total yards, the Saints rank 23rd in the NFL (311.9 total yards per game) and ninth on the other side of the ball (305.5 total yards allowed per contest).

Falcons vs. Saints Odds and Game Time

• Date: Sunday, January 4, 2026
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• City: Atlanta, Georgia
• Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
• Total: 43.5 points
• Spread: Falcons -3.5
• Moneyline: Falcons (-198), Saints (+164)

How to watch Falcons vs. Saints

• TV Channel: FOX (WBRC-Birmingham, AL)
• Live Stream: Fubo

Betting the Over/Under: Falcons vs. Saints

• In 10 of 16 games this season, the Falcons and their opponents have gone over 43.5 points.
• Atlanta and its opponent have combined to hit the over eight out of 16 times this season.
• The Saints have played seven games this season that finished with a combined score over 43.5 points.
• So far this year, five of New Orleans' 16 games with a set number have hit the over.
• The teams combine to score 39 points per game, 4.5 fewer points than this matchup's total.
• These teams surrender 46.8 points per game combined, 3.3 more points than this matchup's total.

Betting the Spread: Falcons vs. Saints

• Atlanta has won nine games against the spread this season, while failing to cover seven times.
• Atlanta has not covered the spread when favored by 3.5 points or more this season (in three opportunities).
• The Saints have compiled an 8-8-0 ATS record so far this season.
• New Orleans is 4-6 ATS this season when playing as at least 3.5-point underdogs.
• The Falcons are 3-4 overall, and 3-4 against the spread, at home.
• At home, Atlanta is winless ATS (0-2) as 3.5-point favorites or greater.
• This year on the road, the Saints are 5-3 against the spread and 3-5 overall.
• As 3.5-point underdogs or more on the road, New Orleans is 4-3 ATS.

Betting the Moneyline: Falcons vs. Saints

• Atlanta has won two of the six games it was listed as the moneyline favorite this season (33.3%).
• The Saints have won three, or 25%, of the 12 games they've played as underdogs this season.
• Atlanta has played three times as a moneyline favorite with odds of -198 or shorter, and came up short in each game.
• This season, New Orleans has won two of its nine games, or 22.2%, when it is the underdog by at least +164 on the moneyline.
• Based on this game's moneyline, the Falcons have an implied win probability of 66.4%.

Dunkel Prediction for Falcons vs. Saints

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