2021 South Point 400 Betting Preview/Prop Play

24 September 2021

Kyle Larson did it again during crunch time when many thought other drivers would excel. Even as the favorite to win the playoffs, he had to grind out a win in last week’s race. 

However, this week is the Round of 12 in Las Vegas, and it happens to be on a track that favors Larson. No doubt, tensions could rise as the playoffs lead into another race. 

Race Details

  • Date: Sun, Sep 26, 6:00 PM
  • Watch on: NBCS
  • Track: Las Vegas Motor Speedway

Betting Overview 

This race will have drivers competing on a 1.5-mile track. This is slightly different from the track in Bristol, as drivers were able to have long stretches of driving. 

The first and second stages are going to be 80 laps each, while the third and last stages are around 107. In recent years, there have been more than 400 laps due to overtime matches. 

In addition, the event is later in the evening, and the track will have cooler temperatures, thus resulting in less wear and tear on tires. 

Head to Head Matchup to Watch 

Denny Hamlin (147.361) and Martin Truex Jr (147.378) finished seventh and ninth, respectively, in their last race. They both have the potential to place within the top five for 1.5-mile tracks, especially since the field of drivers has shortened.  

Dunkel Index For This Event 

The Dunkel Index is showing these top 10 drivers that could win this event. The following 10 are:

  1. Denny Hamlin | 147.361                                                                                     
  2. Martin Truex Jr | 147.378                                                                            
  3. Kyle Larson | 147.697                                                                                     
  4. Kyle Busch | 147.823                                                                                         
  5. Ryan Blaney | 150.290                                                                                 
  6. Kevin Harvick | 152.720                                                                            
  7. Chase Elliott | 154.307                                                                           
  8. Alex Bowman | 154.793                                                                                              
  9. Kurt Busch | 156.173                                                                                               
  10. Tyler Reddick | 156.301

*index is subject to changes 

Drivers That Could Win 

Martin Truex Jr (147.378) won this event a few years back and has driven well on 1.5-mile tracks. These include nine top 11 finishes out of his last ten tries. 

Denny Hamlin (147.361) ranks fourth in speed for 1.5-mile tracks. While last week’s ninth-place finish was not what anyone expected, he has an even better chance to perform on a track that has given him success throughout this season.

Potential Winning Pick 

Kyle Larson (147.697) was somewhat surprising in his Bristol win in the last race. The best driver all season came out and grinded his way to a victory. 

For this race, all of the scenarios are in his favor. He has the starting pole when the race begins and he has ranked second in the last three years for his driving on intermediate tracks. 

In addition, he has dominated this season and continues to make a push to win the playoffs. With the most recent win coming out of nowhere against drivers that should have won, he now gets to drive on a track where he performs some of his best at. 

Prop Play

Top 5 Finish: Kyle Busch (-115)

Busch’s first three races in the Cup Series Playoffs haven’t been all that noteworthy with a crash at Darlington, a ninth at Richmond and a disappointing 21st last week at Bristol.

But the two-time Cup winner has a chance to get back on track this week with the playoffs heading to Vegas. The mile-and-a-half oval has been very much to his liking this year, including a pair of wins at Kansas and Pocono-2 and a pair of second-place finishes at Pocono-1 and Atlanta.

And he’s still very much in the running for the Cup championship despite ranking 15th among playoff drivers in the first round. He begins the second round fifth in Cup standings, nine points above the cutoff.

Rated No. 4 in this week’s Dunkel Index, we’ll take Busch (-115) to start the second round strong at Vegas and finish in the Top 5.

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