Virginia vs. Miami (FL) Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - ACC Tournament

The No. 2 seed Virginia Cavaliers (28-4, 15-3 ACC) take on the No. 3 seed Miami Hurricanes (25-7, 13-5 ACC) as 4.5-point favorites in the ACC Tournament Friday at Spectrum Center, starting at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2. Both teams will look to take one step closer to earning an automatic place in the NCAA Tournament bracket. The matchup's point total is 143.5.

In its most recent outing on Thursday, Virginia claimed an 81-74 victory against NC State. Malik Thomas' team-high 16 points paced Virginia in the victory. In its last game on Thursday, Miami (FL) claimed a 78-73 win against Louisville. Malik Reneau scored 24 points in Miami (FL)'s win, leading the team.

Virginia vs. Miami (FL) Odds and Game Time

• When: Friday, March 13, 2026 at 7 p.m. ET
• Where: Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina
• Spread favorite: Virginia -4.5
• Moneyline favorite: Virginia -185
• Moneyline underdog: Miami (FL) +148
• Over/Under: 143.5 points

How to watch Virginia vs. Miami (FL)

• TV Channel: ESPN2
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: Virginia vs. Miami (FL)

• Virginia and its opponents have combined to outscore Friday's over/under (143.5 points) 21 times this season.
• A total of 22 of Miami (FL)'s games have finished with a combined score over 143.5 points this season.
• Together, the two teams combine for 163.5 points per game, 20.0 points more than the total of 143.5 for this matchup.
• The 139.2 points per game these two teams surrender to opponents combined this season are 4.3 less than the 143.5-point total in this contest.
• On average, Virginia has seen a 149.3-point over/under in its games this season, 5.8 more points than the over/under in this contest.
• The over/under for this matchup is 9.8 points lower than the average over/under in Miami (FL)'s games this season (153.3 points).

Betting the Spread: Virginia vs. Miami (FL)

• Virginia has played 32 games, with 16 wins against the spread.
• So far this season, the Cavaliers have been installed as favorites by a 4.5-point margin or more 26 times and are 11-15 ATS in those contests.
• Against the spread, Miami (FL) is 18-14-0 this season.
• The Hurricanes have covered the spread twice this year when underdogs by 4.5 points or more (in five chances).
• Virginia is 8-9 against the spread, and 16-1 overall, at home this season.
• Virginia is 8-9 ATS as a 4.5-point favorite or greater at home.
• Miami (FL) is 8-2 overall, and 8-2 against the spread, away from home.
• Miami (FL) has one win ATS (1-1) away from home as 4.5-point underdogs or more.

Betting the Moneyline: Virginia vs. Miami (FL)

• Virginia has won 23, or 88.5%, of the 26 games it has played as the moneyline favorite this season.
• The Cavaliers have entered 24 games this season favored by -185 or more and are 21-3 in those contests.
• Virginia has a 64.9% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• Miami (FL) has been a moneyline underdog in 10 games this season and has come away with the win six times (60%) in those contests.
• The Hurricanes have a win-loss record of 1-4 with odds of +148 or worse this year.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies Miami (FL) has a 40.3% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.