UMBC vs. Wagner Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - Nov. 16

The UMBC Retrievers (2-1) host the Wagner Seahawks (0-3) at Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena, tipping off at 12 p.m. ET on Sunday, November 16, 2025. The Retrievers are 6.5-point favorites in the game. The over/under in the matchup is set at 146.5.

UMBC heads into this matchup on the heels of an 81-79 victory over Morgan State on Tuesday. Daylon Dickerson's team-high 18 points paced UMBC in the victory. Wagner heads into this matchup on the heels of a 63-61 loss to Fordham on Tuesday. Eduardo Placer's team-high 20 points paced Wagner in the loss.

UMBC vs. Wagner Odds and Game Time

• When: Sunday, November 16, 2025 at 12 p.m. ET
• Where: Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena in Baltimore, Maryland
• Spread favorite: UMBC -6.5
• Moneyline favorite: UMBC -310
• Moneyline underdog: Wagner +245
• Over/Under: 146.5 points

How to watch UMBC vs. Wagner

• TV Channel: ESPN+
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: UMBC vs. Wagner

• UMBC and its opponent combined to score over 146.5 points, the current matchup's point total, in 25 of 30 games last year.
• Wagner did not play a game that went over 146.5 total points scored last season.
• The two teams averaged a combined 4.0 fewer points per game (142.5) a season ago than this game's total of 146.5 points.
• Opponents of these two teams averaged a combined 139.4 points per game last season, 7.1 fewer than the over/under for this matchup.
• The average point total in UMBC's games last year was 12.3 more points than the total of 146.5 in this matchup.
• The average over/under for Wagner's games in 2024 was 23.4 fewer points than the point total of 146.5 in this game.

Betting the Spread: UMBC vs. Wagner

• UMBC went 13-17-0 ATS last season.
• The Retrievers were 4-4 ATS last season when playing as at least 6.5-point favorites.
• Wagner put together a 9-17-0 ATS record last year.
• The Seahawks covered the spread twice when an underdog by 6.5 points or more last season (in six opportunities).
• At home last year, UMBC was 6-9 overall and 4-11 against the spread.
• At home last season, UMBC was 3-3 ATS as a 6.5-point favorite or greater.
• Wagner was 6-9 overall, and 6-10 against the spread, on the road last season.

Betting the Moneyline: UMBC vs. Wagner

• UMBC finished 5-6 in games it was listed as the moneyline favorite last season (winning 45.5% of those games).
• When playing as a moneyline favorite with odds of -310 or shorter, the Retrievers went 4-2 (66.7%).
• The implied moneyline probability in this matchup gives UMBC a 75.6% chance to win.
• Last season, Wagner won three out of the 14 games, or 21.4%, in which it was the underdog.
• The Seahawks were 1-4 last season when entering a game as an underdog by +245 or more on the moneyline.
• Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that Wagner has a 29.0% chance to win.