UCSD vs. Cal Poly Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - Big West Tournament

The No. 5 seed UCSD Tritons (22-10, 12-8 Big West) are 5.5-point favorites to win and move closer to a guaranteed berth in the NCAA Tournament bracket against the No. 8 seed Cal Poly Mustangs (14-18, 10-10 Big West) in the Big West Tournament Wednesday at Lee's Family Forum, starting at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN+. The matchup has an over/under set at 158.5 points.

UCSD won its last matchup 64-63 against UCSB on Saturday. Bol Dengdit scored a team-leading 15 points for UCSD in the victory. Cal Poly's last game on Saturday ended in a 108-76 victory over CSU Bakersfield. Hamad Mousa scored a team-best 23 points for Cal Poly in the victory.

UCSD vs. Cal Poly Odds and Game Time

• When: Wednesday, March 11, 2026 at 9 p.m. ET
• Where: Lee's Family Forum in Henderson, Nevada
• Spread favorite: UCSD -5.5
• Moneyline favorite: UCSD -236
• Moneyline underdog: Cal Poly +190
• Over/Under: 158.5 points

How to watch UCSD vs. Cal Poly

• TV Channel: ESPN+
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: UCSD vs. Cal Poly

• UCSD and its opponents have combined to outscore Wednesday's over/under (158.5 points) seven times this season.
• In Cal Poly's 30 games this season, 21 finished with more combined points than Wednesday's total of 158.5.
• Together, the two teams combine for 158.5 points per game, equal to the point total of 158.5 for this game.
• These two teams give up a combined 155.4 points per game, 3.1 points less than this contest's over/under.
• On average, the over/under in UCSD's games is 12.5 fewer points than the over/under of 158.5 in this contest.
• Cal Poly's games have an average over/under of 167.9 points this season, 9.4 more points than the over/under for this game.

Betting the Spread: UCSD vs. Cal Poly

• In UCSD's 30 games this year, it has 16 wins against the spread.
• The Tritons have an against the spread record of 6-9 in their 15 games when favored by 5.5 points or more so far this season.
• Cal Poly has played 30 games, with 16 wins against the spread.
• So far this season, the Mustangs have been installed as underdogs by a 5.5-point margin or more 15 times and are 8-7 ATS in those games.
• UCSD is 5-8 against the spread, and 8-5 overall, at home this season.
• This season, as a 5.5-point favorite or greater at home, UCSD is 4-6 ATS.
• Away from home, Cal Poly is 6-11 overall and 9-8 against the spread.

Betting the Moneyline: UCSD vs. Cal Poly

• This season, UCSD has been moneyline favorites 24 times and won 16, or 66.7%, of those games.
• The Tritons have a record of 11-4, a 73.3% win rate, when favored by -236 or more by bookmakers this season.
• Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that UCSD has a 70.2% chance to win.
• Cal Poly has been victorious in nine, or 36%, of the 25 contests it has been chosen as a moneyline underdog in this season.
• This season, the Mustangs have come away with a win five times in 15 chances when named as an underdog of at least +190 or longer on the moneyline.
• Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that Cal Poly has a 34.5% chance of pulling out a win.