Toledo vs. UMass Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - MAC Tournament

The No. 4 seed Toledo Rockets (18-14, 11-7 MAC) and the No. 8 seed UMass Minutemen (17-15, 7-11 MAC) will look to advance in the MAC tournament on Friday as they meet in the conference tournament at 5 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network. Toledo is listed as a 3.5-point favorite to win this contest and advance closer to an automatic spot in the NCAA Tournament bracket. The matchup's over/under is 158.5.

Toledo enters this game on the heels of a 77-76 victory against Bowling Green on Thursday. In the victory, Leroy Blyden Jr. paced Toledo with 23 points. In its last outing on Thursday, UMass claimed an 87-83 win over Miami (OH). In UMass' win, Leonardo Bettiol led the team with 25 points (adding eight rebounds and two assists).

Toledo vs. UMass Odds and Game Time

• When: Friday, March 13, 2026 at 5 p.m. ET
• Where: Rocket Arena in Cleveland, Ohio
• Spread favorite: Toledo -3.5
• Moneyline favorite: Toledo -163
• Moneyline underdog: UMass +131
• Over/Under: 158.5 points

How to watch Toledo vs. UMass

• TV Channel: CBS Sports Network
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: Toledo vs. UMass

• Toledo and its opponents have combined to outscore Friday's over/under (158.5 points) 14 times this season.
• There have been 15 UMass games that finished with a combined score over 158.5 points this season.
• The Rockets average 81.3 points per game against the Minutemen's 80.7, totaling 3.5 points over the matchup's point total of 158.5.
• These two teams surrender a combined 154.5 points per game, 4.0 less than this contest's over/under.
• This season the average over/under for Toledo's games is 158.1 points, 0.4 fewer than the over/under of 158.5 set for this contest.
• The over/under for this game is 0.2 points higher than the average over/under in UMass' games this season of 158.3.

Betting the Spread: Toledo vs. UMass

• Against the spread, Toledo is 16-14-0 this year.
• The Rockets have been favored by 3.5 points or more nine times this season and are 5-4 ATS in those contests.
• Against the spread, UMass is 12-19-0 this season.
• So far this season, the Minutemen have been installed as underdogs by a 3.5-point margin or more eight times and are 5-3 ATS in those games.
• At home this season, Toledo is 9-4 overall and 6-7 against the spread.
• Toledo is 3-3 ATS as a 3.5-point favorite or more at home.
• On the road, UMass is 2-8 overall and 3-7 against the spread.
• UMass is winless ATS (0-3) on the road as 3.5-point underdogs or more.

Betting the Moneyline: Toledo vs. UMass

• This season, Toledo has won 12 out of the 17 games, or 70.6%, in which it has been the moneyline favorite.
• The Rockets have been at least a -163 moneyline favorite nine times this season and won each of those games.
• Toledo has a 62% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• UMass has won in four, or 33.3%, of the 12 contests it has been named as the moneyline underdog this year.
• This season, the Minutemen have been victorious three times in nine chances when named as an underdog of at least +131 or longer on the moneyline.
• UMass has an implied victory probability of 43.3% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.