Tennessee vs. Virginia Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - Second Round

The No. 6 seed from the Midwest Region bracket, the Tennessee Volunteers (23-11), face the No. 3 seed Virginia Cavaliers (30-5) on Sunday with a spot in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament on the line. Tennessee has been installed as a 1.5-point favorite to win this second round matchup, which tips off at 6:10 p.m. ET on TNT. The matchup's over/under is set at 137.5.

Tennessee is coming off of a 78-56 victory against Miami (OH) in its last game on Friday. In Tennessee's win, Ja'Kobi Gillespie led the way with a team-high 29 points (adding three rebounds and nine assists). Virginia heads into this game after an 82-73 win over Wright State on Friday. Jacari White scored a team-leading 26 points for Virginia in the victory.

Tennessee vs. Virginia Odds and Game Time

• When: Sunday, March 22, 2026 at 6:10 p.m. ET
• Where: Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
• Spread favorite: Tennessee -1.5
• Moneyline favorite: Tennessee -116
• Moneyline underdog: Virginia -105
• Over/Under: 137.5 points

How to watch Tennessee vs. Virginia

• TV Channel: TNT
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: Tennessee vs. Virginia

• Tennessee and its opponents have hit the over on this game's total (137.5 points) 25 times this season.
• A total of 28 of Virginia's games have ended with a combined score higher than 137.5 points this season.
• The over/under for the game of 137.5 is 22.6 points fewer than the combined points per game averages for the Volunteers (79.4) and Cavaliers (80.7).
• This matchup's total equals the 137.5 average points per game these two teams have combined to give up this year.
• On average, Tennessee has seen a 148.4-point over/under in its games this season, 10.9 more points than the over/under in this matchup.
• The over/under for this game is 11.7 points lower than the average over/under in Virginia's games this season of 149.2.

Betting the Spread: Tennessee vs. Virginia

• Tennessee has 15 wins against the spread in 34 games this year.
• So far this season, the Volunteers have been installed as favorites by a 1.5-point margin or more 28 times and are 12-16 ATS in those games.
• Virginia is 18-17-0 against the spread this season.
• So far this year, the Cavaliers have been installed as underdogs by a 1.5-point margin or more five times and are 4-1 ATS in those contests.
• At home this year, Virginia is 16-1 overall and 8-9 against the spread.
• This year, as a 1.5-point underdog or more at home, Virginia is 8-9 ATS.
• In away games, Tennessee is 5-5 overall and 4-6 against the spread.
• Tennessee has two wins ATS (2-3) as 1.5-point favorites or more on the road.

Betting the Moneyline: Tennessee vs. Virginia

• This season, Tennessee has been moneyline favorites 28 times and won 20, or 71.4%, of those games.
• The Volunteers have a record of 19-8 in games where sportsbooks favor them by at least -116 on the moneyline.
• Tennessee has a 53.7% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• Virginia has been a moneyline underdog in five games this season and has come away with the win three times (60%) in those contests.
• The Cavaliers have a mark of 3-2 in contests where bookmakers give them odds of -105 or worse on the moneyline.
• Virginia has an implied victory probability of 51.2% according to the moneyline set by sportsbooks for this matchup.