Spurs vs. Heat Dunkel NBA Picks, Predictions and Odds - March 23

The San Antonio Spurs (53-18) hope to build on a three-game road winning run when visiting the Miami Heat (38-33) on March 23, 2026.

San Antonio is a 4.5-point favorite against Miami when the Spurs hit the court against the Heat on Monday. The point total for the game is set at 243.5.

Spurs vs. Heat Odds and Game Time

• Game day: Monday, March 23, 2026
• Game time: 7 p.m. ET
• Location: Miami, Florida
• Arena: Kaseya Center
• Total: 243.5 points
• Spread: Spurs -4.5
• Moneyline: Spurs (-168), Heat (+142)

How to watch Spurs vs. Heat

• TV Channel: Peacock, FDSSW

Betting the Over/Under: Spurs vs. Heat

• The Spurs and their opponents have scored more than 243.5 points in 18 of 71 games this season.
• The Heat have played 27 games this season that finished with a point total above 243.5 points.
• These two teams are scoring 239.3 points per game between them, 4.2 fewer than this matchup's total.
• These teams surrender a combined 228.9 points per game, 14.6 fewer points than this contest's over/under.

Betting the Spread: Spurs vs. Heat

• San Antonio has put together a 36-30-4 record against the spread this season.
• The Spurs have been favored by 4.5 points or more 39 times this season, and covered the spread in 19 of those matchups.
• The Heat have covered 42 times in 71 matchups with a spread this season.
• Miami has been an underdog by 4.5 points or more 19 times this year, and covered the spread in 11 of those contests.
• The Heat are 21-15 against the spread, and 23-13 overall, at home.
• At home, as a 4.5-point underdog or greater, Miami is 12-9 ATS.
• This year away from home, the Spurs are 20-15-1 against the spread and 25-11 overall.
• This year San Antonio is 8-7 ATS as 4.5-point favorites or more away from home.

Betting the Moneyline: Spurs vs. Heat

• The Spurs have been the moneyline favorite 53 total times this season. They've gone 41-12 in those games.
• The Heat have entered the game as underdogs 35 times this season and won 16, or 45.7%, of those games.
• When it has played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -168 or shorter, San Antonio has gone 35-7 (83.3% win percentage).
• This season, Miami has won six of its 19 games, or 31.6%, when it is the underdog by at least +142 on the moneyline.
• Based on this matchup's moneyline, the Spurs' implied win probability is 62.7%.

Dunkel Index Prediction for Spurs vs. Heat

• Pick ATS: Spurs (- 4.5)
• Pick OU: Over (243.5)
  
• Prediction: Spurs 129 - Heat 120
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NBA Picks!