Patriots vs. Steelers Week 2 Dunkel NFL Picks, Predictions and Odds

The New England Patriots (0-1) are favored by 5.5 points against the Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0) on September 20, 2026, starting at 1 p.m. ET, airing on CBS. The predicted point total for the matchup is 41.5.

The Patriots fired on all cylinders last year, as they ranked second-best in scoring offense (28.8 points per game) and fourth-best in scoring defense (18.8 points allowed per game). The Steelers totaled 23.4 points per game offensively last year (15th in NFL), and they allowed 22.8 points per game (17th) on the other side of the ball.

Patriots vs. Steelers Odds and Game Time

• Date: Sunday, September 20, 2026
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• City: Foxborough, Massachusetts
• Venue: Gillette Stadium
• Total: 41.5 points
• Spread: Patriots -5.5
• Moneyline: Patriots (-230), Steelers (+190)

How to watch Patriots vs. Steelers

• TV Channel: CBS

Betting the Over/Under: Patriots vs. Steelers

• In 14 of 17 games last season, the Patriots and their opponents went over 41.5 points.
• The Patriots and their opponents combined to hit the over 11 out of 17 times last season.
• The Steelers' games last season had a combined scoring total higher than 41.5 points in 12 of 17 outings.
• Pittsburgh and its opponent combined to go over the point total 10 out of 17 times last season.
• The two teams combined to score 52.2 points per game last season, 10.7 more points than this matchup's total.
• Combined, these teams surrendered 41.6 points per contest last year, 0.1 more points than the over/under for this game.

Betting the Spread: Patriots vs. Steelers

• New England compiled an 11-6-0 ATS record last year.
• New England had an ATS record of 5-3 when playing as at least 5.5-point favorites last season.
• The Steelers put together a 9-8-0 ATS record last year.
• Pittsburgh was an underdog by 5.5 points or more once last year, and covered the spread.
• The Patriots were 4-5 against the spread, and 6-3 overall, at home last year.
• Last year, as 5.5-point favorites or more at home, New England was 3-2 ATS.
• Last season away from home, the Steelers were 3-5 against the spread and 4-4 overall.
• Pittsburgh was unbeaten ATS (1-0) as 5.5-point underdogs or more on the road.

Betting the Moneyline: Patriots vs. Steelers

• New England won 10 of the 11 games it was favored on the moneyline last season (90.9%).
• Last season, the Steelers won five out of the nine games in which they were the underdog.
• New England won all nine games it played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -230 or shorter.
• Pittsburgh entered two games last season as the underdog by +190 or more and won each of those games.
• The Patriots have a 69.7% chance to win this matchup based on the moneyline's implied probability.

Dunkel Prediction for Patriots vs. Steelers

For more expert NFL picks, visit our Dunkel Index NFL Picks and Predictions.