Michigan State vs. Toledo Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - Nov. 5

The No. 6 Michigan State Spartans (1-0) host the Toledo Rockets (0-1) at Jack Breslin Students Events Center, starting at 8 p.m. ET on Thursday, November 5, 2026. The Spartans are 26.5-point favorites in the game. The over/under in the matchup is 152.5.

Michigan State heads into this game following a 96-59 win against Quinnipiac on Monday. In the win, Jeremy Fears Jr. paced Michigan State with 13 points. Toledo is coming off of a 71-70 loss to Arkansas State in its most recent outing on Monday. Mynor Strong's team-leading 18 points paced Toledo in the loss.

Michigan State vs. Toledo Odds and Game Time

• When: Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 8 p.m. ET
• Where: Jack Breslin Students Events Center in East Lansing, Michigan
• Spread favorite: Michigan State -26.5
• Moneyline favorite: Michigan State -14286
• Moneyline underdog: Toledo +2967
• Over/Under: 152.5 points

How to watch Michigan State vs. Toledo

• TV Channel: Peacock/NBCSN
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: Michigan State vs. Toledo

• Michigan State's games went over 152.5 points scored, its current matchup's point total, 10 times (out of 35) last season.
• Last year, 18 of Toledo's 32 matchups went over 152.5 total points scored.
• The Spartans and the Rockets combined to average 7.3 more points per game a season ago than the total of 152.5 set for this game.
• Opponents of these two teams averaged a combined 144.9 points per game last season, 7.6 fewer than the point total in this game.
• The average point total in Michigan State's games last year was 5.4 fewer points than the over/under of 152.5 in this matchup.
• The average point total for Toledo in 2025 was 5.1 points higher than this game's over/under.

Betting the Spread: Michigan State vs. Toledo

• Michigan State compiled an 18-17-0 ATS record last year.
• The Spartans were favored by 26.5 points or more last season once, and failed to cover the spread.
• Toledo compiled an 18-14-0 ATS record last year.
• At home last season, Michigan State was 15-2 overall and 8-9 against the spread.
• At home last year, as a 26.5-point favorite or greater, Michigan State was winless ATS (0-1).
• Away from home last season, Toledo was 9-5 against the spread and 5-9 overall.

Betting the Moneyline: Michigan State vs. Toledo

• Michigan State was the moneyline favorite 28 total times last season. It finished 25-3 in those games.
• The Spartans never played a game last season with moneyline odds of -14286 or shorter.
• Based on this contest's moneyline, Michigan State's implied win probability is 99.3%.
• Last season, Toledo won four out of the 14 games, or 28.6%, in which it was the underdog.
• The Rockets were not a bigger underdog last season than the +2967 moneyline set for this game.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 3.3% chance of a victory for Toledo.