Louisville vs. SMU Dunkel Predictions & Vegas Odds - ACC Tournament

The No. 6 seed Louisville Cardinals (22-9, 11-7 ACC) and the No. 11 seed SMU Mustangs (20-12, 8-10 ACC) play in the ACC Tournament Wednesday at Spectrum Center, starting at 2:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. Louisville is favored by 6.5 points. Both teams are looking to take another step toward a conference title and an automatic spot in the NCAA Tournament bracket. The matchup has an over/under of 163.5.

Their last time out, Louisville won on Saturday 92-89 over Miami (FL). In the victory, Ryan Conwell paced Louisville with 24 points. SMU is coming off of an 86-69 win against Syracuse in its last outing on Tuesday. Kevin Miller scored a team-best 25 points for SMU in the victory.

Louisville vs. SMU Odds and Game Time

• When: Wednesday, March 11, 2026 at 2:30 p.m. ET
• Where: Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina
• Spread favorite: Louisville -6.5
• Moneyline favorite: Louisville -275
• Moneyline underdog: SMU +218
• Over/Under: 163.5 points

How to watch Louisville vs. SMU

• TV Channel: ESPN
• Check out the rest of our Dunkel Index NCAA Basketball Picks!

Betting the Over/Under: Louisville vs. SMU

• Louisville and its opponents have hit the over on this game's total (163.5 points) 10 times this season.
• A total of 18 of SMU's games have finished with a combined score over 163.5 points this season.
• Together, the two teams combine for 170.9 points per game, 7.4 points more than the point total of 163.5 for this matchup.
• The 150.6 points per game these two teams allow to opponents combined this season are 12.9 less than the 163.5-point total in this contest.
• On average, the over/under in Louisville's games is 5.2 fewer points than the over/under of 163.5 in this matchup.
• The over/under for this contest is 0.4 points more than the average over/under in SMU's games this season (163.1 points).

Betting the Spread: Louisville vs. SMU

• Against the spread, Louisville is 16-15-0 this season.
• This season, the Cardinals have an ATS record of 13-7 in their 20 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or more.
• SMU has 14 wins against the spread in 32 games this year.
• The Mustangs have covered the spread once this season when underdogs by 6.5 points or more (in three chances).
• Louisville is 15-2 overall, and 10-7 against the spread, at home.
• At home, as a 6.5-point favorite or more, Louisville is 9-5 ATS.
• This season in away games, SMU is 4-6-1 against the spread and 3-8 overall.

Betting the Moneyline: Louisville vs. SMU

• Louisville has been the moneyline favorite in 26 games this season and won 20 (76.9%) of those contests.
• The Cardinals are 18-1 this season when entering a game favored by -275 or more on the moneyline.
• Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that Louisville has a 73.3% chance to win.
• SMU has been chosen as moneyline underdogs in 11 games this year and has walked away with the win three times (27.3%) in those games.
• The Mustangs have yet to win this season when listed as an underdog of +218 or worse on the moneyline this season.
• SMU has an implied victory probability of 31.4% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.