Lightning vs. Maple Leafs NHL Predictions, Picks and Odds - March 7

The Tampa Bay Lightning (38-18-4) will visit the Toronto Maple Leafs (27-25-11) on Saturday at 7 p.m. ET, in a matchup featuring two teams at opposite ends of the Eastern Conference. The Maple Leafs are heavy underdogs despite being at home, at +180, and the Lightning are -218.

Tampa Bay fell 4-1 on the road its last time out on March 5 against the Winnipeg Jets. The Lightning got one point apiece out of three players, including Brayden Point (one goal) and Jake Guentzel (one assist).

Toronto's last game was a road loss, 6-2, against the New York Rangers on March 5. Five Maple Leafs players recorded one point each in that matchup, including Matthew Knies (one assist) and Matias Maccelli (one goal).

Ahead of this matchup, here's who we predict to bring home the win in Saturday's hockey game.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Predictions & Pick

Ahead of the upcoming contest between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs, computer-calculated moneyline, over/under, and score predictions are below, per Dunkel Index.

• Prediction: Lightning 3 - Maple Leafs 2
• Pick OU: Under 6.5 (Dunkel projecting 5.05 goals)
  

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Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Moneylines

Take a look below at the latest moneylines for the Lightning-Maple Leafs game.

• Favorite: Lightning (-218)
• Underdog: Maple Leafs (+180)

Lightning Betting Insights

• In the 49 times this season the Lightning have been a moneyline favorite, they have finished 31-18 in those games.
• In games it has played with moneyline odds of -218 or shorter, Tampa Bay has put together a 7-2 record (winning 77.8% of its games).
• Based on the moneyline in this matchup, the Lightning's implied win probability is 68.6%.
• Tampa Bay and its opponent have combined to score more than 6.5 goals in 26 of 60 games this season.

Maple Leafs Betting Insights

• This season the Maple Leafs have won 11 of the 30 games, or 36.7%, in which they've been an underdog.
• This season Toronto has won one of its three games when it's the underdog by at least +180 on the moneyline.
• The moneyline set in this outing implies a 35.7% chance of victory for the Maple Leafs.
• Toronto has played 36 games this season that finished with more than 6.5 goals.

Lightning Key Stats

• Tampa Bay's 207 total goals (3.4 per game) rank eighth in the league.
• The Lightning have conceded 160 total goals (2.7 per game), ranking second in NHL action for the fewest goals against.
• It has the league's second-best goal differential at +47.
• The 40 power-play goals the Lightning have recorded this season (on 188 power-play chances) rank 14th in the NHL.
• Tampa Bay has the league's 13th-ranked power-play conversion rate (21.28%).
• The Lightning have scored three shorthanded goals this season.
• Tampa Bay's 83.16% penalty-kill success rate is the fifth-best in the league.
• Tampa Bay wins 47.1% of its faceoffs (28th in NHL).
• The Lightning have a 12.2% shooting percentage as a team, which ranks fourth in the league.

Maple Leafs Key Stats

• Toronto's 199 goals on the season (3.2 per game) rank 14th in the NHL.
• The Maple Leafs allow 3.5 goals per game (218 in total), 31st in the league.
• With a goal differential of -19, the team is 22nd in the league.
• The Maple Leafs have 29 power-play goals (on 147 chances), 27th in the NHL.
• Toronto's power-play percentage (19.73) puts the team 18th in the league.
• The Maple Leafs have three shorthanded goals (23rd in league).
• At 83.02%, Toronto has the sixth-best penalty-kill percentage in the league.
• At 55.9%, Toronto has the NHL's top faceoff win percentage.
• The 11.5% shooting percentage of the Maple Leafs is ninth in the league.